Pakistan Sept. 2011 – The Agency (CIA) Has Declared An Internal Intelligence War On ISI.

This Mail is from september 2011 and it is about the CIA and the ISI (Pakistan military Intelligence Agency = Inter-Services Intelligence) in Pakistan and it is about the opressing power of the USA in that country. Stratfor Member comments on this Insight View are like: “I find it more interesting that the Agency has declared an internal intelligence war on ISI” and more on that below on the EMail: “Nobody is trusted.” furthermore they say the “CIA” is using “Moscow Rules.” against Pakistan and the ISI.

“The Agency is operating against Pakistan with Moscow Rules.

ISI is an enemy combatant.

The EMail comes from a “STRATFOR’s Pakistani sources” the source said: “I am getting the sense that the United States has decided to coerce Pakistan into compliance.” …, further it goes “If it continues on its current path then the U.S. could escalate matters further and engage in fixed wing airstrikes against militant assets in North Waziristan….”the main Haqqani facility is next door to the Pak army divisional command in Miramshah.” The source call this a “collateral damage”…”So in addition to collateral damage given the densely populated area a U.S. assault on the facility could kill many Pak army personnel.”

you can read the full EMAil the following lines:

Re: INSIGHT – U.S./PAKISTAN – Behind the escalation ***PROTECT SOURCE& INTEL***

Date 2011-09-28 15:12:30
From burton@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1233806656-1317215394-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-528774114-@b28.c15.bise6.blackberry

Text

Smoking gun, Libya levels after La Belle Disco bombing.

I find it more interesting that the Agency has declared an internal
intelligence war on ISI.

Nobody is trusted.

On 9/28/2011 8:09 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

I wonder how much signals intercept the US has to show the Paks
lying…….

———————————————————————-

From: Fred Burton
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2011 08:05:26 -0500 (CDT)
To: Kamran Bokhari
Cc:
Subject: Re: INSIGHT – U.S./PAKISTAN – Behind the escalation ***PROTECT
SOURCE & INTEL***
The ISI-CIA battles have moved into a freezing Cold War. Temperature
has dropped significantly.

The Agency is operating against Pakistan with Moscow Rules.

ISI is an enemy combatant.

On 9/27/2011 8:47 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

SOURCE: PK00
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR’s Pakistani sources
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Pak ambo to DC
PUBLICATION: No
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B/C
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran

DC has told Islamabad. Help us reconcile with those under your
influence. As for those that are not under your control, either you
take em out or let us do so. The Haqqanis are not entirely under
Pakistani control. They do a lot of independent stuff.

There was a conversation that Islamabad facilitated in the UAE between
DC and the Haqqanis but then these guys turned around and engaged in a
series of attacks. But the Pakistanis aren’t willing to take action
against them. Spoke with Mullen who told me he has been lied to by his
Pak counterparts.

On the Pakistani side, the problem is that they deeply mistrust the
Americans and suspect that the U.S. is going behind its back and
cutting its own deals with the insurgents. Look at how Tayyeb Agha is
missing after the revelations that the U.S. was dealing with him to
reach Mullah Omar. I am getting the sense that the United States has
decided to coerce Pakistan into compliance.

Islamabad still has some time to help de-escalate matters but not a
whole lot. If it continues on its current path then the U.S. could
escalate matters further and engage in fixed wing airstrikes against
militant assets in North Waziristan. The problem has been that the
main Haqqani facility is next door to the Pak army divisional command
in Miramshah.

So in addition to collateral damage given the densely populated area a
U.S. assault on the facility could kill many Pak army personnel. There
is a growing U.S. view that it can always come back to working with
Pakistan. But for now it may need to get tough to shape behavior.

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/284258_re-insight-u-s-pakistan-behind-the-escalation-protect-source.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17765.0.html

Cloud Computing in China Can Allways Be Intercepted By The Government

The following EMail will give you a view on chinese Internet SSL/TLS Security and cloud computing in china. The Source of this EMAil is an Stratfor called “Professional hacker” with an own “internet security company that consultswith companies globally including China”. Cloud Computing is one of the most common services providers deliver these days to their users/employees also for companies and agencys in china. but there is still a high risk in china if the websites are hosted in the country. It is way easy for the chinese government to intercept your SSL/TLS connection in china because they have root certificates in their browsers – “can still intercept and see SSL/TLS encrypted traffic because “Chinese
governments can still intercept and see SSL/TLS encrypted traffic because they have root certificates in the browser.” and there is nothing a private person or a company can do against this. The source claims that this is “especially true if they manage the infrastructure and don’t just provide hosting.”

you can see the whole EMail follows here:

INSIGHT – CHINA – Cloud Computing – CN64

Date 2011-02-15 20:51:29
From michael.wilson@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D5ACE22.2000406@stratfor.com

Text
**In response to what we just wrote on the CSM

SOURCE: CN64
ATTRIBUTION: Professional hacker
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Owns his own internet security company that consults
with companies globally including China
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

In concept this article is factually correct that it is possible (although
the word “clouds” is probably not ideal – “cloud network” is better).
Some might say things like “Well we only use SSL/TLS connections to the
machines, and we have XYZ security in place to prevent direct tampering.”
The problem is if the site is located within China, the Chinese
governments can still intercept and see SSL/TLS encrypted traffic because
they have root certificates in the browser. Once something is in the
physical hands of the enemy there is virtually nothing that the end
company can do. That is especially true if they manage the infrastructure
and don’t just provide hosting. Overall I think it’s a bad idea for
everyone but China. But I’m sure they’d say the same regarding the NSA’s
spying activities, https://www.eff.org/nsa/hepting So it’s a bit like the
pot calling the kettle black.


Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
richmond@stratfor.com
(512) 744-4324
http://www.stratfor.com

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1126742_insight-china-cloud-computing-cn64-.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17764.0.html

Iranian connections into the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Syria

We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the emailĀ“s source) ;

“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”

The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.

the email ends with the quote:

“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com

Text

Spot on

On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>

###

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize

On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa

On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1139945_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1148366_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1155793_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17716.0.html

AFGHANISTANĀ“s private War – Investment by Blackwater and Others Private Security Contractors – 1.5 Billion Dollar

The next EMail gives you a view on Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan and the fincanially invovement of 1.5 Billion Dollar of this private security companys. the involvement has deep ties into the financial sectors – and it shows you clearly that war is money. the mail gives you also a view on who maybe is responsible in 2014 if the western army troops will leave the country completely.

INSIGHT – AFGHANISTAN – Private Security Contractors – AF3

Date 2010-10-27 15:04:22
From colibasanu@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: AANLkTimqAcJaWmjjKHZ1aQwJuWbnxyY=OGCNPah3fVGv@mail.gmail.com

Text

CODE: AF3
PUBLICATION: Analysis
DESCRIPTION: Senior correspondent for Reuters in Kabul, an Afghan national
ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
HANDLER: Kamran

Although under pressure from Washington to soften the decree and issue a
new joint ruling on the firms, Kabul is still defiant.
It has already seized hundreds of arms from smaller groups run by Afghan
companies as part of the process supposed to be completed by the end of
the year. those firms have closed now.
Those guarding compounds, companies, embassies and escorting
diplomats will be exempted from Karzai’s order.
There have been some bloody incidents by some members of the firms,
especially in the south in recent years.
The firms are not accountable to Kabul and in the face of the incidents
and with the ambitious plan for taking all security responsibilities by
2014, Karzai is keen to get this done.
Blackwater and few others run by some western officials are obviously not
happy because some 1.5 billion dollars are involved in the industry.
Hillary clinton rang Karzai on Saturday and the next day Karzai said he
would implement the ban and the following day we had new york times
talking how Karzai was getting cash in bags from Iran.
Also, Karzai a while back in a statement said the deadline for disbanding
the security firms will be extended until mid Feb.

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1806816_insight-afghanistan-private-security-contractors-af3-.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17691.0.html

Muslim Brotherhood with deep connections into Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria and Gaza

The following EMail shows you the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the middle east, north africa connections and the arbaic world. the muslim brotherhood seems to play a big role in all this arab protests uprising all around the arab world. the EMails verified stratfor contact again comes from the FBI another part of this EMail is a “Syrian businessman with family links to the regime” – it gives you a short view of situation doen there and a view over the conflicts spreading around the countrys also the involvement of the muslim brotherhood.

Re: DISCUSSION – MB troubles

Date 2011-02-28 19:46:32
From burton@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1703833745.930286.1298918683296.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

A few weeks back, I posted some info from the FBI on the status of the
MB in CONUS, if it helps.

Reva Bhalla wrote:
> To follow up Kamran’s big piece on the MB, would be a good idea to do
> a shorter follow-up assessment on the status of MB in Egypt
> (post-mubarak), Syria and Jordan
>
> Egyptian MB seems to be in trouble, no longer as capable of keeping a
> liberal face to the protest movement. this identity crisis is causing
> fractures within the movement as we saw today between the MB youth and
> the older leadership
>
> Syrian MB is trying to work up the guts, but they still fear a Hama repeat
>
> Jordanian MB is being accommodated by the king, but they are also
> being shown their limits
>
> Kamran, any thoughts on how coordination between the MB branches has
> evolved since the Eygpt unrest broke out? what are these guys saying
> on their email lists?
>
> ————————————————————————
> *From: *”Reva Bhalla”
> *To: *”Analyst List”
> *Sent: *Monday, February 28, 2011 12:40:02 PM
> *Subject: *INSIGHT – Syria/Libya/MB – MB protest plans and bashar’s
> diss to Q
>
>
> PUBLICATION: for analysis
> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Syrian businessman with family links to the regime
> SOURCE Reliability : C
> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
> DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>
> ** love the syrian excuse given to Q
>
> the Syrian MB is closely coordinating with the MB in Egypt, Jordan,
> Libya and Gaza and observing the course of developments in Libya. They
> expect the imminent demise in Qhaddafi and want to develop a mechanism
> for toppling Asad on the basis of what they learn from the experiences
> of protesters in other Arab countries. It would be foolish to try to
> oust Asad because the regime will react with unprecedented use of
> force. The MB have already decided on starting their protest in
> Aleppo in northern Syria. The MB are encouraged by the fact that
> Aleppo, which is Syria’s second largest city (although there are
> people in Syria who argue that the Aleppo Metropolis is the country’s
> largest), is only 20 kms away from the Turkish borders. They do not
> think the Turkish government will allow the regime in Damascus to use
> excessive violence against Aleppo which they make historical claims
> to. Syrian officials are contacting their Turkish counterparts to
> ensure Ankara does not intervene in the north. It is most unlikely
> that protests can initiate in Damascus, Homs or Hama because the
> regime can abort them immediately. Aleppo is another matter because
> this large city has never accepted inclusion in the state of Syria and
> had always wanted to be included in Iraq.
>
> The source added that Libyan president Mu’ammar Qhaddafi has called
> president Bashar Asad three times to request military assistance. He
> says Qhaddafi promised Asad billions of dollars if he could send
> troops by sea to Libya to defeat the insurgents. Asad told him he is
> unable to do so because the Syrian army is tied to the Golan front in
> anticipation of an Israeli attack

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1125344_re-discussion-mb-troubles-.html

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17690.0.html

Background info on Chinese intelligence/political figures

The following EMail(s) are/is again is from a Former FBI FCI agent – it gives you a short view into the history of chinese intelligence work and the political figures behind and involved. the internal problems and the near future of chinese intelligence services. the EMail is dated -2010-03-05 17:17:18-

Re: INSIGHT-CHINA-Background info on Chinese intelligence/political figures
Date 2010-03-05 17:17:18

From burton@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4B912E59.60409@stratfor.com

Text

Yes

Sean Noonan wrote:
> this was from IC Smith right? (collating all the insight and adding a
> few modification to the CI China piece right now)
>
> Fred Burton wrote:
>> Interesting historical perspective.
>>
>> Kang sounds like a ruthless SOB.
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: * Korena Zucha
>> *Date: *Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:06:03 -0600
>> *To: *’Secure List’
>> *Subject: *INSIGHT-CHINA-Background info on Chinese
>> intelligence/political figures
>>
>> SOURCE: US701
>> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former FBI FCI agent
>> PUBLICATION: if desired
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing, relatively new source
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
>> DISTRIBUTION: Secure
>> SPECIAL HANDLING: None
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
>>
>> One of the characteristics of Chinese politics and this applies to the
>> intelligence/security agencies as well, is that rank is not always a
>> firm indicator of importance and power. Remember, Deng Xiaoping never
>> succeeded either Chairman Mao or Premier Zhou, but he was
>> unquestionably the man in charge. It is clear that Kang retained
>> great power and there are those who think Li Kenong was essentially
>> his mouthpiece. I’m not completely sure that’s the case, but at any
>> rate, Kang continued to wield immense power, really up to his death in
>> 1975. But historically I think he falls in that rather gray area
>> where they would just as soon that he is forgotten, but no one has the
>> courage to pull the trigger. And this is, in my view, for two
>> reasons. He was simply brutal (I’ve often times said that never in
>> the history of conflict have the two opposing intelligence chiefs been
>> so completely sadistic as was Kang Sheng and Dai Li.) and given that
>> historical brutality (where he is said to have killed more of his
>> friends than his enemies) it is easy for Chinese today to really not
>> want to remember him. In many ways, I find Kang the single most
>> interesting character coming out of the Chinese Civil War.
>>
>> But also, there is Kang’s role starting the Cultural Revolutionl.
>> Note how the Chinese treat the Gang of Four for instance, relegating
>> them to memories trash can, except to further dump on them, but Kang,
>> (and Mao) have escaped such criticism, relatively speaking. Kang was
>> never threatened during the CR as was Deng and others…including even
>> some of the more prominent generals, i.e.He Long. But most of the
>> future leaders were indeed, treated harshly by the Red Guards (one of
>> Deng’s sons, Deng Pufeng, was thrown out of a window and is in a
>> wheelchair today) and when I chatted with my friend who was affiliated
>> with the MPS/MSS, even he didn’t really want to discuss Kang.
>>
>> I think Kang is one of the more intriguing characters in Chinese
>> history that hasn’t gotten the notoriety and attention he really
>> deserves, though such books as those by Byron and Pack (The Claws of
>> the Dragon) and Faligot and Kauffer (The Chinese Secret Service) are
>> good starts.
>>
>> But his completely sinister background (though he is said to have been
>> able to write calligraphy with both hands, at the same time!) and his
>> role in the CR are the reasons, I believe, he isn’t lionized as
>> perhaps others, i.e. Mao, Zhou Enlai, Deng, Zhe De (who was treated
>> harshly during the CR), He Long, etc. etc.
>>
>> Re Zhou Yangkang….I don’t really know the extent of his influence,
>> but I doubt its as powerful as Kang’s was at the height of his power.
>> Actually, I’m of the opinion that one of the reasons Deng Xiaoping
>> formed the MSS is that he didn’t trust the MPS, which was Kang’s
>> organization and had treated Deng himself badly during the CR. But I
>> have no real idea as to the extent of Zhou’s influence.
>>
>> And as for Jia, he too, seems to have dropped off the scope in many
>> ways. I don’t know if that’s by choice or by design on the part of
>> the ruling elite, but he seems to be in complete
>> retirement…..something that didn’t use to occur in China, especially
>> for those on the reviewing stands, etc. I havent heard of him of him
>> in quite some time…had actually rather forgotten about him. But I
>> should tell you, I don’t keep up with the current comings and goings
>> in China to the extent I did when I had to work for a living.
>
> —
> Sean Noonan
> ADP- Tactical Intelligence
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> http://www.stratfor.com

Related Links
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1655848_re-insight-china-background-info-on-chinese-intelligence.html

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17688.0.html

Chinese Intelligence

The following EMail gives you a view on the chinese intelligence. The Mail is from an Former FBI Senior Analyst that is in contact with stratfor on several EMails (you will find here) on chinese intelligence services and the work background. this EMail gives you a short view on the intelligence work and the primary attacks of chinese intelligence in the year 2010.

Re: INSIGHT: Chinese Intelligence

Date 2010-02-16 16:19:20
From colibasanu@stratfor.com
To watchofficer@stratfor.com
sean.noonan@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4B7AB3EB.6000806@stratfor.com
Text
what’s for secure@ should be sent directly there, not to WO, unless that’s
changed.

Sean Noonan wrote:

SOURCE:
ATTRIBUTION: Former Counterintelligence Officer
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former FBI Senior Analyst
PUBLICATION: For Chinese intel piece, and background
SOURCE RELIABILITY:
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Secure, Tactical
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

That said, I have arrived at a few conclusions that probably are worth
thinking about. Here are several of them:
– When western intelligence analysts (myself included) make mistakes in
interpreting Chinese intelligence activities, it almost always is the
result of false assumptions. The most common assumption is that the
Chinese have/are/are going to do things the way the Soviets did. This
is not at all surprising, given that our entire intelligence structure,
including training, was built to meet and defeat a Soviet or
Soviet-trained threat; and the results of our analyses always had to be
presented to agency policymakers who relied almost exclusively on Soviet
points of reference. My favorite personal experience on this point was
that, at every reporting period, I had to identify how many K/S PRCIOs
were in the USA. While this was probably the key item in assessing the
current Soviet threat, in my area we never, ever saw any evidence to
suggest that the incidence of PRC intell activity in the USA varied with
the PRCIO presence level. Still, the Bureau’s management always assumed
that, if the PRC’s K/S stats were 10% of the Soviet stats, the Soviets
must be ten times the intell threat of the Chinese. Most cases I see or
hear about nowadays still suffer from critical mistakes based on acting
upon false assumptions from Day One of the case.
– It is a huge mistake to think that even a majority of the Chinese
intelligence activity we see –even clandestine activity against
classified targets– is attributable to the direction and control of the
PRCIS. I think the beat example in the public domain of this is the
ongoing Chinese attack against the nuclear weapons design and
engineering of the US national laboratories. In my opinion, the record
makes it quite plain that this campaign is directed and controlled by
the PRC’s Institute for Applied Physics & Computational Mathematics;
i.e., the IAPCM decides which lab employees will be approached, how &
when they will be be approached, and who on the PRC side will try to
establish a transitory or long-term intelligence relationship with the
US lab employee. Since it is well known that the IAPCM has close ties
with the Shanghai Bureau of the MSS, the normal interpretation is that
the employees of the IAPCM are coopted workers of the MSS. My view is
that the relationship is exactly the reverse: the IAPCM calls upon the
MSS for favors from time to time, but the MSS isn’t running the show. I
bring this example forward because, when it comes to plotting national
CI strategy, many people think it is necessary to penetrate the
MSS/Shanghai to find out important details of the attack against the
labs, but the better target would be the IAPCM. My current view is
about 70% of the PRC intell activity we see is not attributable to the
direction or control of the PRCIS.
– It is by no means clear what a “PRCIS case” is. For example, when the
offensive CI component concocts a sexual-entrapment op against a US
diplomat in Beijing, it certainly is clear to all that we are seeing the
MSS at it most dangerous. Likewise, when an MID/PLA officer in the USA
under military attache cover pays money to someone for sensitive
information, all can agree that we are seeing a PRC military
intelligence operation. When we run into cases where two employees of a
US defense contractor leave their company to form a new one and
subsequently are detected in China trying to sell stolen proprietary
information to a military research institute with close ties to the
MID/PLA, does the case change from economic espionage to an MID
operation? If the MID subsequently provides a tasking list, does it
then become an MID case? In my career, I saw many cases where there was
an important PRCIS link at some point, but the tradecraft evident in
collecting information, in transferring the information out of the USA,
and establishing and maintaining operational security almost always was
really weak. I often found myself wondering if the tradecraft I saw in
a given case was something made up by co-conspirator Zhang San or was
really PRCIS methodology. I was struck by how seldom the PRCIS took
control of a situation and imposed professional control over it
(actually, I didn’t ever see this even once); and eventually I concluded
that, whle it was well known that the PRCIS has good intelligence
manuals, it normally doesn’t follow them.
Hope this is food for thought for you.


Sean Noonan
ADP- Tactical Intelligence
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
http://www.stratfor.com

Seconad Mail different start:

Re: INSIGHT: Chinese Intelligence
Date 2010-02-17 03:26:55
From chris.farnham@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4B7AB3EB.6000806@stratfor.com
Text
The people who you most don’t want to read that, just did.
—– Original Message —–
From: “Sean Noonan”
To: watchofficer@stratfor.com
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2010 11:04:11 PM GMT +08:00 Beijing /
Chongqing / Hong Kong / Urumqi
Subject: INSIGHT: Chinese Intelligence

SOURCE:
ATTRIBUTION: Former Counterintelligence Officer
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former FBI Senior Analyst
PUBLICATION: For Chinese intel piece, and background
SOURCE RELIABILITY:
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Secure, Tactical
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

(the mail now goes same as upon)

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-24-00-insight-chinese-intelligence.html

WikiLeaks Forum

Chinas Jasmine Googlegroup organizer in contact with Stratfor Intelligence

This is way interessting inside view of stratfor contacts in china. the person (stratfor source) belongs to be the leader of one of the biggest jasmin revolution google groups and is/was in contact with stratfor intelligence agents via the demonstrations.Strfaor describes the Source as: ” Main person listed on the Jasmine google groups”

you can read the full EMail in the following lines.

MORE Re: INSIGHT- US/CHINA- Jasmine Googlegroup organizer on AP article

Date 2011-04-08 14:35:06
From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
To zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 2107022585.1762098.1302201264693.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

*with coding this time.=C2= =A0=C2=A0 Still do not know how legit he is,
but he is willing to talk through the whole story of their
development.=C2=A0 this could become= a very good ongoing conversation,
and I will have to be careful with this analysis we are putting out
now.=C2=A0 ZZ, please take a look at the edit version and doublecheck my
bias towards his ‘majority in china’ argument [which I don’t believe].

SOURCE: CN507
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Main person listed on the Jasmine google
groups.=C2=A0=C2=A0
PUBLICATION: As needed.=C2=A0= =C2=A0
SOURCE RELIABILITY: C [still trying to feel this out]
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SPECIAL HANDLING: none=C2=A0
SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

Yes, I am involved in “the Initiators” group at certain degree, though I
believe the word “the Initiators” is some kind of misleading, since no one
in this group really involved the organizing of the first gathering. I am
not involved in Hong Kong group. Recently, my role has been shifted to
coordinator to liaison between groups. I have connects to all groups
except one, which also calls themselves initiators. Based on very limit
information, I believe this group’s majority members located in China.

We indeed do have some kind of coordinate problem. Too many people want to
be in leading position. So far, at lease three groups have active members
in China. So the question is not the coordination but the communication,
how to let more people in China know there is such movement.

On 4/7/11 1:34 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

This is all he said on the article below:

This group is one of the two largest currently. I reckon it ranks
second. The other one bases on Hong Kong.

———————————————————————-

From: “Michael Wilson”
To: “The OS List”
Sent: Wednesday, April 6, 2011 7:09:42 AM
Subject: [OS] CHINA/US/CSM – AP Exclusive: Group in China protest
calls=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0= emerges

AP Exclusive: Group in China protest calls emerges
AP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110406/ap_on_re_as=
/as_china_jasmine_revealed;_ylt=3DAnh.nz1_n.j8ZGquz8f2vQhvaA8F;_ylu=3DX3oDM=
TJ1am9zZWw3BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNDA2L2FzX2NoaW5hX2phc21pbmVfcmV2ZWFsZWQEcG9z=
AzYEc2VjA3luX2FydGljbGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNhcGV4Y2x1c2l2ZWc-
By GILLIAN WONG, Associated Press Gillian Wong, Associated Press
=E2=80=93 1 hr 40 mins ago

SEOUL, South Korea =E2=80=93 Strolling past hip cafes, the young Ch=
inese man in a white sports jacket and faded jeans looks like any other
university student in the South Korean capital. But the laptop in his
black backpack is a tool in a would-be revolution in China.

The 22-year-old computer science student is part of a group behind
appeals that started popping up anonymously on the Internet seven weeks
ago calling on Chinese to stage peaceful protests to get the ruling
Communist Party to move toward democracy. Those calls have spooked the
government into launching one of its broadest campaigns of repression in
years to keep the protests from catching on, as they have in the Middle
East and North Africa.

The Associated Press tracked down the student and some of his
colleagues, giving an exclusive first look at one group of campaigners
behind the online petitions, where they are based and how they use
technology to operate behind the anonymity of the Internet.

Their group, they said, is a network of 20 mostly highly educated, young
Chinese with eight members inside China and 12 in more than half a dozen
other countries.

Calling itself “The Initiators and Organizers of the Chinese Jasmine
Revolution” after a phrase used in the Tunisian uprising, the group is
not the sole source of the protest calls; at least four others have
sprung up. “The Initiators” group appears well-organized, with members
tasked to recruit, manage social networking sites and gather feedback.

Interviews with four members show similar evolutions: They grew to
resent the government’s autocratic rule and China’s widespread
inequality and injustice. The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt made change
look possible.

“People born in the late ’80s and the ’90s have basically decided that
in their generation one-party rule cannot possibly outlive them, cannot
possibly even continue in their lifetimes. This is for certain,” the
lean, soft-spoken 22-year-old who goes by the Internet alias “Forest
Intelligence” told The AP in an interview Sunday at a cafe in Seoul’s
trendy Samcheong-dong district.

While the calls for weekly demonstrations every Sunday in dozens of
cities have attracted many onlookers and few outright protesters, their
impact is clear. The government has responded with more police on the
streets, more intrusive Internet monitoring and the detention,
disappearance or arrest of more than 200 people. Artist and government
critic Ai Weiwei seems to be the latest, taken into custody over the
weekend. The group said none of those detained have been involved with
their protest calls.

Members of the group requested anonymity out of concern that they or
their families might be targeted for retribution by the government,
which maintains an extensive network of informants among student groups
overseas. Most members know each other only by Internet nicknames.

They also are concerned that, with more than half their members outside
China, their movement might be seen as a foreign-backed, anti-China plot
rather than a response to real domestic problems.

“The revolution was started purely because of the failure of domestic
affairs, not because of overseas forces,” said “Hua Ge,” a Columbia
University graduate in classics who lives in New York and at 27 years
old is one of the group’s older members. He recruited the others.

The first online calls for a Chinese “Jasmine Revolution” =E2=80=94= a
Twitter post on Feb. 17 and a longer appeal on the U.S.-based Chinese
news site Boxun.com on Feb. 19 =E2=80=94 remain anonymous. = Soon after
they appeared, Hua Ge said that he, together with a man in China that he
refused to identify, started the website Molihuaxingdong.blogspot.com.

“Molihuaxingdong” is Chinese for “Jasmine Movement” and it has evolved
to include a Facebook page, a Twitter feed, and Google groups for every
Chinese province or territory. Many of the sites are blocked in China,
but remain effective because so many Chinese know how to elude
government blocks, said Hua Ge.

“People need to have some change in their thinking,” said Hua Ge, a
native of the central Chinese city of Wuhan. “They don’t really
understand what rights they have, or what kind of political future they
can choose.”

Their main Google group has more than online 1,200 users, though how
many are inside China is unclear. An online survey posted in February
received 300 responses, mostly from people in China, members said, and
the group gets 50 to 100 emails daily from participants in the country.

Outside China, members are in France, Australia, Canada, Korea and
Japan, among other countries. “Forest Intelligence” oversees the
recruitment of volunteers and maintains the website. “Xiaomo,” a
24-year-old college student in Paris, collates comments from surveys.
Boston-based student “Pamela Wang,” 18, translates news articles into
Chinese and is one of eight administrators of the group’s Facebook page.

The eight members in China include an expert in online search engines, a
former government employee who writes articles and someone who works on
the website’s layout, said Hua Ge. He refused to provide their contact
information or reveal details about them out of concerns for their
safety.

Hua Ge said the group also has consulted Wang Juntao, a prominent
dissident sentenced to 13 years in prison for advising students during
the 1989 pro-democracy protests centered on Tiananmen Square. Freed on
medical parole in 1993, Wang now lives in New York and confirmed his
assistance.

Collectively, the group’s postings are often clever with a touch of
sarcasm. People are urged to “stroll” and “smile” rather than protest.
“We are making a new history of revolution by a unique way: We use the
sound of laughter, singing and salutations instead of the sound of guns,
cannons and warplanes!” a notice dated March 1 said.

Online security is a major concern, and group members are constantly in
touch. On Sunday, Forest Intelligence showed an AP reporter his laptop,
on which was installed a virtual machine =E2= =80=94 an operating system
within the computer’s normal operating system that provides an extra
layer of protection against hackers.

As soon as he logged on, Skype and Gmails chat services blinked with new
messages. “Are you back yet?” wrote Xiaomo, who then relayed news that
activist-artist Ai Weiwei was prevented from getting on a flight to Hong
Kong. Less than an hour later, the news was posted on the group’s
website.

On Tuesday, the group released an Internet safety manual to help Chinese
users circumvent censors and issued another statement deploring the
current crackdown. It warned that if activists were not released by
April 10, they would retaliate by using “search engine optimization”
techniques so that when Chinese do online searches for names of
officials the results will link to reports about corruption.

The group has no illusions that change, if any, will come soon, but is
willing to wait years to gather momentum.

“Some people say this movement is going to die and this movement is not
going to be successful like that in Tunisia or Egypt, but in those
countries, it took three or four years for the people to make
preparations and finally, there was a peaceful transition,” Hua Ge said.
“It may take a period of time for the people to wake up, so the longer
we continue our efforts the more people will know about the situation
and join us.”
Follow Yahoo! News on Twitter, become a fan on Facebook

–=20
Michael Wilson
Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
Email: michael.wilson@st=
ratfor.com


Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
http://www.stratfor.com

Sean Noonan

Tactical Analyst

Office: +1 512-279-9479

Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

http://www.stratfor.com

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-24-00-chinas-jasmine-googlegroup-organizer-in.html

The WikiLeaks Forum
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17682.0.html

Stratfor Source a former VP (vice president) of FDP

Well of course the content of this email is interessting too but the german ellections are coming and Stratfor has deep ties into germanys politics. so it is a very nice to see that one of the current political party that rules germany together with CDU was an Stratfpr informant and it was an former vice president of FDP.

the EMail is dated: 2010-01-29

So who may be this source?

INSIGHT – IRAN/GERMANY – Berlin’s shift on Iran

Date 2010-01-29 17:54:00
From goodrich@stratfor.com
To watchofficer@stratfor.com
Others MessageId: <4B6312A8.1060106@stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 4B62E3B2.5030507@stratfor.com
Text
CODE: DE101
PUBLICATION: yes
ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Berlin
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: former VP of FDP, heads democracy thinktank & briefs
German and US government on Islam/Iran specifically
SOURCE RELIABILITY: first contact, so still weighing
ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
HANDLER: LaurenFrom what I understand the new German administration will be more strict
and consequent addressing and opposing Irans nuclear weapons program. The
main reason for this is that the former government partner of the CDU, the
SPD with foreign minister Steinmeier up front, were quite cautious and
hesitant in confronting Irans illegal activities.

Not necessarily because they believed that Irans actions where legal but
because they thought that dialog and benefits might work better. The
majority of FDP MP’s, however, believe that strict sanctions are
neccessary and so does the CDU including Chancellor Merkel.

I am quite sure that this new “coalition” will have further implications
for Siemens and other German companies.

As you probably know Siemens technology on its way to Iran has been
confiscated in December 2009 and the company might face charges for
violating the German foreign trade law.


Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
Stratfor
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com

 

[EastAsia] INSIGHT – US POV of Uyghers

The following EMail is from 2009-09-14 and will give a view on China US and Uyghers. Also it shows you a short view on Stratfor thoughts about tibe a quote is following:

“This is really different than the Tibet issue in that Tibet is a
bullshit mountainous region, but has been a thorn in the
government’s side because of its large lobbying group abroad, not
because China wanted to integrate the region into China”

The complete EMail:

Re: [EastAsia] INSIGHT – US POV of Uyghers

Date 2009-09-14 14:58:54
From goodrich@stratfor.com
To rbaker@stratfor.com
richmond@stratfor.com
reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
eurasia@stratfor.com
eastasia@stratfor.com
Others InReplyTo: 1784067966-1252932718-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-1601042776-@bda007.bisx.prod.on.blackberry
Text
the way it was put to me (and tell me if I’m wrong Baker), but along with
those reasons below Beijing also wants to fold the xinjiang province more
economically into the greater Chinese econ, which is hard to do with such
hostility there.
It would shift xinjiang from being a buffer region to being another
stepping stone on their way to conquer CA.

Rodger Baker wrote:

Etim attacks two years ago, riots this year, greater worry about
national stability, want to avoid having xinjiang seen as tibet overseas


Wireless

————————————————————————–

From: Peter Zeihan
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 07:43:37 -0500
To: Jennifer Richmond
Subject: Re: [EastAsia] INSIGHT – US POV of Uyghers
why are the chinese thinking that this is something that now needs to be
treated differently? what’s changed from their pov?

Lauren Goodrich wrote:

LG: this one is kinda long, so I tried to divide it up.
Really interesting stuff on US view & Russian meddling
Can follow-up if you have questions Rodger or Jen.

CODE: KZ105
PUBLICATION: if needed
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former State and USAID specialist on Uyghers
SOURCE LEVEL: medium
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: Analysts & EA & Eurasia
HANDLER: Lauren

China: basic shifts and feelings on Uyghers

China has shifted dramatically in how it looks at Xinxang. Before it
was just a bufferzone to be contained and suppressed. But now
Beijing wants to fully incorporate the region into China
economically, so it is more than just contained and suppressed
now…. Now they need real order and loyalty. Before they allowed an
independent streak in that as long as the Uighers didn’t act out
everything was okay, but now Beijing can’t risk even that.

This is really different than the Tibet issue in that Tibet is a
bullshit mountainous region, but has been a thorn in the
government’s side because of its large lobbying group abroad, not
because China wanted to integrate the region into China
further-Xingxiang is different because now Beijing wants to
integrate the region and it doesn’t have a large lobbying group.


Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
http://www.stratfor.com