The Following Stratfor EMail was written short after the US Drone Killing of the so called (since 2001) CIA Al-Quaida most wanted hit list. This case was a brake of all rules of human rights the US of A stands for by President Barack Hussein Obama II and the Bush Administration because they set him on a Kill List and wanted him dead.
The headhunting CIA suceeded this operation in late 2011, exactly on september 30th 2011.
The following EMail from strafor is giving you a great view into the connection between different intelligence agencys. Anwar al-Awlaki was murdered by a drone strike in yemen on sept. 30th it did not take long Stratfor Intelligence Service get the information of the succeed kill strike the same day.
Question posed to source:
Got any idea where we nailed Awlaki in your old goat stomping grounds?
Source response:
I understand it was in the south near Aden by drones. Good shot, I must say.
Drone Strike killing by a Predator 2 Drones.
My apologies — wrong source code was used on this one — please note
the change to SA701.
More info from the same source — question posed:
Indeed! Think manned or Global Hawk?
Response from source —
Unmanned from what I understand.
ATTRIBUTION: None
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Riyadh-based US security official
PUBLICATION: For background only
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
Anwar al-Awlaki´s son – 16 years old was killed 2 weeks later the same way by US Officials ordered drone strikes.
This is part one of a series you can follow now on Intelligence Leaks all about WikiLeaks Global Intelligence Files and US Drone Killings in different countries.
Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari was sentenced to life in prison for attempting to build a bomb. He never build a bomb. He came to the US in 2008 to study chemical engineering. He had plans and he owned chemicals but he never attacked anyone anyway he faces now a life in prison.
In this Document you will see that the FBI Agent is clearly telling that he THINKS Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari is going to build a weapon of mass destruction as evidence his research of instructions, the research of potential targets, purchasing the material of chemicals and the needed ingredients are enough evidences for a person to sent him his whole life to prison.
Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari has been accused for a crime until today he has not done.
This is a part of his story.
(right click on a picture to show it in full screen mode)
This Text is from a Stratfor INSIGHT PDF or DocX Document it is about the Assasination of OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH.
The assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh (Arabic: محمود المبحوح, Maḥmūd al-Mabḥūḥ) (14 February 1961 – 19 January 2010) took place on 19 January 2010, in a Dubai hotel room. Al-Mabhouh—a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the IslamistPalestinian group Hamas—was wanted by the Israeli government for the kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers in 1989 as well as purchasing arms from Iran for use in Gaza; these have been cited as a possible motive for the assassination.[1] He also had many other enemies including Fatah (whose members “loathed” him), Egypt had imprisoned him for all of 2003, and Jordan’s intelligence services were looking for him.[2]
This was an Mossad Israelian Operation behind own lines on the field of Dubai. This Insight will give a view more details on that actions also you will find WikiLeaks Related Cables of this Story right here:
The Following text is a copie from a Stratfor Intelligence Document and will give you another insight view of the Assasination.
THE ASSASSINATION OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH: A CLOSER LOOK
Editor’s Note: This intelligence brief is based on information and insight that STRATFOR analysts believe would be of interest to our clients and aid them in their security planning.
Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was found dead Jan. 20 in his room at Al-Bustan hotel in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Al-Mabhouh was a senior Hamas military commander and one of the founders of the Izz al-Deen al-Qassam Brigades. He was traveling to Dubai for an unknown meeting, presumably on sensitive Hamas business. According to STRATFOR sources, he had stopped in Dubai on his way to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials about prospective arms sales to Hamas. Al-Mabhouh was traveling without security. According to one report, this was due to the inability to purchase airfare for his bodyguards, though we suspect there might have been an operational reason for him to travel alone.
Dubai law enforcement authorities have ruled out natural causes in al-Mabhouh’s death and have identified as many as 17 individuals (15 men and two women) believed to have participated in the assassination on Jan. 19. Dubai law enforcement officials were able to track 11 of the 17 individuals through closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage back to their arrival at the Dubai International Airport 19 hours before the hit. The 11 individuals traveled to Dubai on passports from Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. They arrived at different times from different locations around Europe approximately 14 hours before al-Mabhouh arrived. The team also used several different high-pedestrian-traffic locations throughout Dubai — including at least three hotels and a shopping center — as meeting locations, logistics hubs and staging sites prior to the assassination.
Additionally, Dubai law enforcement officials were able to identify several reportedly encrypted international phone calls made from the phones of the suspected members of the assassination team to numbers in Austria, where Dubai authorities suspect a command and control center for the operation was based. The members of the teams had attempted to alter their physical appearance to varying degrees, from simply wearing a hat to donning wigs and glasses. Furthermore, the demeanor of the team members viewed in the CCTV footage did not deviate from that of any ordinary tourist or businessman who frequents Dubai, which indicates a high level of experience and professionalism.
Throughout the CCTV footage, it is very clear that the 17 members of the teams carried out specific roles in the operation. At least four surveillance teams were identified; three of the four teams appeared to work in pairs, while it seemed the fourth “team” consisted of a single individual. Another individual, who appeared to be the senior commander of the operation, apparently reserved the room across the hall from where al-Mabhouh was staying. The remaining seven members of the group appeared to serve as lookouts outside al-Mabhouh’s room and as the actual assassins.
The Operation Under Way
Prior to al-Mabhouh’s arrival in Dubai, the surveillance teams were positioned at the airport and at two hotels that al-Mabhouh was known to frequent when he traveled to Dubai. Once he arrived at Al-Bustan, two surveillance operatives located in the lobby were seen following him to his room. Once his room number had been confirmed, the two surveillants contacted the rest of the team, who then moved to Al-Bustan, where the hotel room across the hall from al-Mabhouh’s was reserved by the senior commander. Al-Mabhouh then left Al-Bustan for a meeting with an unknown individual. CCTV footage shows one of the surveillance operatives watching al-Mabhouh get into a vehicle and then apparently describing the vehicle to others via cell phone.
After al-Mabhouh’s departure, two men and a woman, wearing wigs and glasses, and two two-man assassin teams staged themselves in the room across the hall from al-Mabhouh’s room. Upon his return to Al-Bustan, al-Mabhouh is seen passing a disguised man and woman, who take up lookout positions near the elevator and outside al-Mabhouh’s room. Al-Mabhouh is intercepted and killed in his room by the two assassin teams. The surveillance teams then leave the premises, followed by the assassin teams and finally by the disguised team members. The 11 identified individuals flew out of Dubai International Airport between two and 10 hours after the assassination to different locations — such as South Africa, Hong Kong, Germany, France and Switzerland — long before a hotel cleaning crew discovered al-Mabhouh’s body at approximately 1:30 p.m. local time on Jan. 20.
The arrival of the team members 19 hours ahead of the operation and 14 hours ahead of al-Mabhouh indicates that the group or organization had prior knowledge of al-Mabhouh’s travel plans. Additionally, the coordinated movements and logistics involved in the operation typically require an advance team in place ahead of the assassination team’s arrival. Throughout the CCTV footage, some members of the team, specifically the actual assassins, seemed mindful of the surveillance cameras and moved in such a way as to block a direct view of their faces, while others were not as careful.
The team’s movements throughout the operation were methodical, calculated and well-choreographed. Their outward demeanor immediately before and after the killing was smooth and did not deviate from that of regular Dubai visitors. The tactics, tradecraft and logistics involved in this operation were well beyond the capabilities of known terror organizations and all but a few national intelligence services. While the CCTV footage does not offer any clues as to who carried out the assassination, is does display a high and rare degree of professionalism.
Protection Concerns
While al-Mabhouh was clearly engaged in questionable activities that made him a target for assassination, there are valuable lessons that can be learned from studying the tactics and tradecraft used in this operation as outlined in the videos found at these links:
(Part 1)
(Part 2)
(Part 3)
Many executive protection (EP) teams spend a great deal of time with their principals in foreign four- and five-star hotels similar to Al-Bustan. While these hotels offer a significantly higher level of security than some other venues, the assassination of al¬Mabouh is a clear example that there can be security risks inside the confines of even a high-end hotel.
Hotels are considered by many security teams to be relatively safe environments, and in a typical EP hotel scenario, designated members of the team, usually one close-protection agent (though occasionally two agents are used), escort the principal to and from his or her room. In some cases, the principal may even move around the hotel to use the gym, eat or attend meetings without his protection team.
The number of attackers involved in the assassination of al-Mabhouh could easily have overpowered one or two close-protection agents, especially if the assassins were able to achieve the element of surprise and were skilled fighters or used weapons. Furthermore, in such a scenario, the close-protection agent(s) would likely be targeted first, to remove the danger they pose before focusing on the principal.
The skill and degree of surveillance exhibited in the al-Mabhouh assassination would have been difficult for an EP team or targeted principal to detect and defend against. It is very difficult for EP agents to focus much attention on surveillance detection, especially in the case of a one- or two-man team. This underscores the need for a comprehensive and professionally trained countersurveillance (CS) team in such situations. The CS team focuses on the events and actors surrounding the principal and the EP detail, and by its very nature is in a far better position to detect hostile surveillance than close-protection agents are.
The surveillance of al-Mabhouh observed on the CCTV footage would likely have been picked up by a deployed CS team. The CS team could then have alerted the EP team to possible threats and allowed the EP team to increase the level of protection and/or notify the appropriate authorities. The very presence of a CS team could also serve to raise the risk of conducting such an operation to the point where another target would be selected.
The al-Mabhouh case also demonstrates the importance of EP teams keeping tabs on the individuals who occupy the hotel rooms in close proximity to their principals. Such rooms can be used as ambush sites when the principal walks through the hall, and in some cases, they can be used to gain entry to the principal’s room through adjoining doorways or from the exterior of the building.
Text
Here ya go.
—
Michael McCullar
Senior Editor, Special Projects
STRATFOR
E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
Tel: 512.744.4307
Cell: 512.970.5425
Fax: 512.744.4334
The following EMail gives you a view on President Barak Obamas Leak Investigations – This EMail was not for the Public and marked as “internal use only – pls do not forward”
burton@stratfor.com claims in this EMail a view on Obamas Anti Leaking Investigations not only against Whistleblowers even on journalists that speak out agains Barak Obama.
Brennan is behind the witch hunts of investigative journalists learning information from inside the beltway sources.
This information now is called by me a way interessting stuff as this mail was written John O. Brennan still was obamas chief counterterrorism advisor and now in 2013 he has been turned into the chief director of Central Intelligence Agency.
So not only the hunt on whistleblowers has been opened also the hunt on investigative journalism this is an act against any democratic law and freedom of press.
but this mail will offer you some more information let´s follow the second quote:
Note — There is specific tasker from the WH to go after anyone printing materials negative to the Obama agenda (oh my.) Even the FBI is shocked. The Wonder Boys must be in meltdown mode..
Here is the second proof that an task direct from the white house (WH) comes to hunt investigative journalists that print anything negative on the president of the united states. even the FBI had knowledge of this tasker and is in this mail claimed to be shocked.
So the war on whistleblowers is not the only agenda on the white houses tasks it also includes investigative journalism and anything else that speaks negative on Mr. Obama using leaks or wikileaks as a source or using own collected material that could shine negative loght on the white house.
This Leak will give you proof that CIA, Stratfor and you can easy imagine other Shadow Surveillance Agencys are monitoring the world wide web social medias.
They are talking about in that following leaked EMails.
Have suspected this, but provides an idea of the scope of the surveillance.
CIA Open Source Center in charge of following these social websites. Used to provide a quick sweep of reaction to world events. Have several hundred analysts. Follow about 5 million tweets a day. The listed examples were to the death of UBL, social responses to Obama’s Middle East speech. Started to use this media after the Green Revo. in Iran and how Twitter impacted that. Thought that they would have started monitoring these sites in a systematic way before that.
So what we all know and what we all thought before is now leaked and you have it black and white on your screen right now you as are reading this blogpost.
So there are three Points in that EMail and on two of those I want to shine some light on.
3 things 1. Their job is very very similar to ours with better resources and different requirements 2. Note how they use, caveat, and compare their monitoring of social media 3. There is no organized monitoring of US domestic social media
1. Their job is very very similar to ours with better resources and different requirements
so at the first point Stratfor (SF) says that they are monitoring the social media too like the CIA but the CIA has more massive Computers and resources than SF and different requirements. The CIA Open Source Center was created after the attacks of 9/11 for a better state of the art surveillance of citizens and terrorist activities.
The OSC Leader at the moment is Douglas Naquin. you can imagine that within a more and more networked world through programs like facebook and twitter (spying machines) the resources must have been increased rapidly because we live in a new century of informations.
3. There is no organized monitoring of US domestic social media
this point I would call today a fail. because we know now that the NSA is building a huge Spy Center in USA Utah you can see and hear about this on Jacob Applebaums 29C3 keynote. So it is important to note that not only the CIA OSC, and Stratfor are monitoring Facebook and Twitter or other social medias – also The NSA and for sure Germanys BND and other surveillance Agencys are up into the great spying machine called the internet. and the social media networks are their most powerful tools.
watch full or start at 11:23.
the mail goes on with an important note of an agent.
3. Don’t bet on it. It’s just better hidden
So he claims to be that point 3 is not valid and the monitoring is just better hidden. this is an important note because it is NOT only the CIAs open source center who is monitoring all that social media networks there is more hidden surveillance in the state and all around the internet.
No, not OSC From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> Reply-To: <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>, CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com> Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 17:50:07 +0000 To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook By the CIA OSC?
So what are those important points to know, what can you do to get not in the view of spys and secret agents. well this is way difficult to say. at first try to be anonymous as possible if you don´t want to get “”visited”” by unknown.
use often nicknames on the web. try things like the tor browser and use unix / Linux systems for a better control of your system. you can use VPN and create different mail accounts.
at least it is up to all of you with whom do you talk and what do you share – do you need your real name in facebook? do you need to post pictures of your friends or the latest party? think before posting. what is important what do you need to say and what is to much private information?
I am sure if someone would stay in your house or appartment watching you all the time face 2 face you do not know him and he is not much talking to you. you wouldn´t share or your personal stuff with him. you would ask him to leave.
Talk about this on WikiLeaks Forum (or on this blog 😉 )
This Mail is from september 2011 and it is about the CIA and the ISI (Pakistan military Intelligence Agency = Inter-Services Intelligence) in Pakistan and it is about the opressing power of the USA in that country. Stratfor Member comments on this Insight View are like: “I find it more interesting that the Agency has declared an internal intelligence war on ISI” and more on that below on the EMail: “Nobody is trusted.” furthermore they say the “CIA” is using “Moscow Rules.” against Pakistan and the ISI.
“The Agency is operating against Pakistan with Moscow Rules.
ISI is an enemy combatant.
The EMail comes from a “STRATFOR’s Pakistani sources” the source said: “I am getting the sense that the United States has decided to coerce Pakistan into compliance.” …, further it goes “If it continues on its current path then the U.S. could escalate matters further and engage in fixed wing airstrikes against militant assets in North Waziristan….”the main Haqqani facility is next door to the Pak army divisional command in Miramshah.” The source call this a “collateral damage”…”So in addition to collateral damage given the densely populated area a U.S. assault on the facility could kill many Pak army personnel.”
Date 2011-09-28 15:12:30
From burton@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1233806656-1317215394-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-528774114-@b28.c15.bise6.blackberry
Text
Smoking gun, Libya levels after La Belle Disco bombing.
I find it more interesting that the Agency has declared an internal
intelligence war on ISI.
Nobody is trusted.
On 9/28/2011 8:09 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
I wonder how much signals intercept the US has to show the Paks
lying…….
———————————————————————-
From: Fred Burton
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2011 08:05:26 -0500 (CDT)
To: Kamran Bokhari
Cc:
Subject: Re: INSIGHT – U.S./PAKISTAN – Behind the escalation ***PROTECT
SOURCE & INTEL***
The ISI-CIA battles have moved into a freezing Cold War. Temperature
has dropped significantly.
The Agency is operating against Pakistan with Moscow Rules.
ISI is an enemy combatant.
On 9/27/2011 8:47 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:
SOURCE: PK00
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR’s Pakistani sources
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Pak ambo to DC
PUBLICATION: No
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B/C
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran
DC has told Islamabad. Help us reconcile with those under your
influence. As for those that are not under your control, either you
take em out or let us do so. The Haqqanis are not entirely under
Pakistani control. They do a lot of independent stuff.
There was a conversation that Islamabad facilitated in the UAE between
DC and the Haqqanis but then these guys turned around and engaged in a
series of attacks. But the Pakistanis aren’t willing to take action
against them. Spoke with Mullen who told me he has been lied to by his
Pak counterparts.
On the Pakistani side, the problem is that they deeply mistrust the
Americans and suspect that the U.S. is going behind its back and
cutting its own deals with the insurgents. Look at how Tayyeb Agha is
missing after the revelations that the U.S. was dealing with him to
reach Mullah Omar. I am getting the sense that the United States has
decided to coerce Pakistan into compliance.
Islamabad still has some time to help de-escalate matters but not a
whole lot. If it continues on its current path then the U.S. could
escalate matters further and engage in fixed wing airstrikes against
militant assets in North Waziristan. The problem has been that the
main Haqqani facility is next door to the Pak army divisional command
in Miramshah.
So in addition to collateral damage given the densely populated area a
U.S. assault on the facility could kill many Pak army personnel. There
is a growing U.S. view that it can always come back to working with
Pakistan. But for now it may need to get tough to shape behavior.
The following EMail will give you a view on chinese Internet SSL/TLS Security and cloud computing in china. The Source of this EMAil is an Stratfor called “Professional hacker” with an own “internet security company that consultswith companies globally including China”. Cloud Computing is one of the most common services providers deliver these days to their users/employees also for companies and agencys in china. but there is still a high risk in china if the websites are hosted in the country. It is way easy for the chinese government to intercept your SSL/TLS connection in china because they have root certificates in their browsers – “can still intercept and see SSL/TLS encrypted traffic because “Chinese
governments can still intercept and see SSL/TLS encrypted traffic because they have root certificates in the browser.” and there is nothing a private person or a company can do against this. The source claims that this is “especially true if they manage the infrastructure and don’t just provide hosting.”
you can see the whole EMail follows here:
INSIGHT – CHINA – Cloud Computing – CN64
Date 2011-02-15 20:51:29
From michael.wilson@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D5ACE22.2000406@stratfor.com
Text
**In response to what we just wrote on the CSM
SOURCE: CN64
ATTRIBUTION: Professional hacker
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Owns his own internet security company that consults
with companies globally including China
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
In concept this article is factually correct that it is possible (although
the word “clouds” is probably not ideal – “cloud network” is better).
Some might say things like “Well we only use SSL/TLS connections to the
machines, and we have XYZ security in place to prevent direct tampering.”
The problem is if the site is located within China, the Chinese
governments can still intercept and see SSL/TLS encrypted traffic because
they have root certificates in the browser. Once something is in the
physical hands of the enemy there is virtually nothing that the end
company can do. That is especially true if they manage the infrastructure
and don’t just provide hosting. Overall I think it’s a bad idea for
everyone but China. But I’m sure they’d say the same regarding the NSA’s
spying activities, https://www.eff.org/nsa/hepting So it’s a bit like the
pot calling the kettle black.
—
Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
richmond@stratfor.com
(512) 744-4324 http://www.stratfor.com
We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the email´s source) ;
“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”
The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.
the email ends with the quote:
“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”
Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com
Text
Spot on
On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>
###
Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com
Text
Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
———————————————————————-
From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches
———————————————————————-
From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
———————————————————————-
From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize
On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign
The following EMail(s) are/is again is from a Former FBI FCI agent – it gives you a short view into the history of chinese intelligence work and the political figures behind and involved. the internal problems and the near future of chinese intelligence services. the EMail is dated -2010-03-05 17:17:18-
Re: INSIGHT-CHINA-Background info on Chinese intelligence/political figures
Date 2010-03-05 17:17:18
From burton@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4B912E59.60409@stratfor.com
Text
Yes
Sean Noonan wrote:
> this was from IC Smith right? (collating all the insight and adding a
> few modification to the CI China piece right now)
>
> Fred Burton wrote:
>> Interesting historical perspective.
>>
>> Kang sounds like a ruthless SOB.
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: * Korena Zucha
>> *Date: *Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:06:03 -0600
>> *To: *’Secure List’
>> *Subject: *INSIGHT-CHINA-Background info on Chinese
>> intelligence/political figures
>>
>> SOURCE: US701
>> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former FBI FCI agent
>> PUBLICATION: if desired
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing, relatively new source
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
>> DISTRIBUTION: Secure
>> SPECIAL HANDLING: None
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
>>
>> One of the characteristics of Chinese politics and this applies to the
>> intelligence/security agencies as well, is that rank is not always a
>> firm indicator of importance and power. Remember, Deng Xiaoping never
>> succeeded either Chairman Mao or Premier Zhou, but he was
>> unquestionably the man in charge. It is clear that Kang retained
>> great power and there are those who think Li Kenong was essentially
>> his mouthpiece. I’m not completely sure that’s the case, but at any
>> rate, Kang continued to wield immense power, really up to his death in
>> 1975. But historically I think he falls in that rather gray area
>> where they would just as soon that he is forgotten, but no one has the
>> courage to pull the trigger. And this is, in my view, for two
>> reasons. He was simply brutal (I’ve often times said that never in
>> the history of conflict have the two opposing intelligence chiefs been
>> so completely sadistic as was Kang Sheng and Dai Li.) and given that
>> historical brutality (where he is said to have killed more of his
>> friends than his enemies) it is easy for Chinese today to really not
>> want to remember him. In many ways, I find Kang the single most
>> interesting character coming out of the Chinese Civil War.
>>
>> But also, there is Kang’s role starting the Cultural Revolutionl.
>> Note how the Chinese treat the Gang of Four for instance, relegating
>> them to memories trash can, except to further dump on them, but Kang,
>> (and Mao) have escaped such criticism, relatively speaking. Kang was
>> never threatened during the CR as was Deng and others…including even
>> some of the more prominent generals, i.e.He Long. But most of the
>> future leaders were indeed, treated harshly by the Red Guards (one of
>> Deng’s sons, Deng Pufeng, was thrown out of a window and is in a
>> wheelchair today) and when I chatted with my friend who was affiliated
>> with the MPS/MSS, even he didn’t really want to discuss Kang.
>>
>> I think Kang is one of the more intriguing characters in Chinese
>> history that hasn’t gotten the notoriety and attention he really
>> deserves, though such books as those by Byron and Pack (The Claws of
>> the Dragon) and Faligot and Kauffer (The Chinese Secret Service) are
>> good starts.
>>
>> But his completely sinister background (though he is said to have been
>> able to write calligraphy with both hands, at the same time!) and his
>> role in the CR are the reasons, I believe, he isn’t lionized as
>> perhaps others, i.e. Mao, Zhou Enlai, Deng, Zhe De (who was treated
>> harshly during the CR), He Long, etc. etc.
>>
>> Re Zhou Yangkang….I don’t really know the extent of his influence,
>> but I doubt its as powerful as Kang’s was at the height of his power.
>> Actually, I’m of the opinion that one of the reasons Deng Xiaoping
>> formed the MSS is that he didn’t trust the MPS, which was Kang’s
>> organization and had treated Deng himself badly during the CR. But I
>> have no real idea as to the extent of Zhou’s influence.
>>
>> And as for Jia, he too, seems to have dropped off the scope in many
>> ways. I don’t know if that’s by choice or by design on the part of
>> the ruling elite, but he seems to be in complete
>> retirement…..something that didn’t use to occur in China, especially
>> for those on the reviewing stands, etc. I havent heard of him of him
>> in quite some time…had actually rather forgotten about him. But I
>> should tell you, I don’t keep up with the current comings and goings
>> in China to the extent I did when I had to work for a living.
>
> —
> Sean Noonan
> ADP- Tactical Intelligence
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> http://www.stratfor.com
The following Stratfor EMail is from 2010-08-26 00:05:54 and gives you a point of view on the Iranian / Syrian and Saudi Relations and problems in 2010.
Date 2010-08-26 00:05:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId: <4C7593C2.7070302@stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 35F03B4E-85E5-4D68-949A-0E7F5B4E963C@stratfor.com
Text
Geography (as opposed to demography) explains why Iraq is a much bigger
priority for Iran than Lebanon. From the Iranian pov, they can’t achieve
much more than what they have already in Lebanon because they are
dependent upon Syrian cooperation which is waning. And because of the
Saudi moves. Rather the ones from the Turks, whom the Iranians don’t want
to irk. From the Iranians pov, Lebanon is a key outpost of Iranian
influence but with limited value. They have to compete with the Syrians,
Saudis, and Turks. Not to mention the Israelis. Ideally, the IRI after it
was established would have liked to focus on Iraq as opposed to Lebanon
but it couldn’t because of the Baathist regime there and the war it
imposed on the Iranians. In contrast, the ’82 Israeli invasion of Lebanon
provided the Iranians with an opening. They had help from the Syrians who
at the time were enemies of the Iraqis, had the Israeli threat, which was
magnified because of the Turkish-Israeli alignment, and were also seen as
a pariah in the Arab world because of the Alawite nature of the regime.
So, Damascus sought alignment with Iran. Now that the regional dynamics
have shifted, the Syrians are in the process of putting some distance
between themselves and the Iranians, Tehran sees that it may not be able
to manage its Lebanese asset as it used to though it needs it to keep the
Israelis from attacking them. This is why Iran despite seeing Iraq as the
priority will not yield on Hezbollah without a fight. In the end, what
will happen is that Hezbollah’s status as the premier non-state Iranian
proxy will be reduced several notches down to where it will be a
pro-Iranian political force in Lebanon. For the Saudis and the Arabs, if
they can achieve this then they would have compensated for the loss of
Iraq. For them the Iranian threat becomes much more manageable as long as
they don’t have to worry about the Iranians being in their front and
backyard.
Link: themeData
Link: colorSchemeMapping
On 8/25/2010 5:49 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
er, sorry. that should say Syria edging away from Iran* below
On Aug 25, 2010, at 4:47 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
the first report really interested me because in considering who the
source is, who I think likes to channel information to the admin
through us, Iran may be trying to signal that they’re not worried
about what the US/Saudi/Turkey are doing with Syria and HZ — that’s
not what is going to compel them to negotiate. Their focus is on Iraq,
and they know they have the upper hand there. THen, think about the
serial bombings today…
On Aug 25, 2010, at 4:44 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:
3 different reports from 3 different sources on Syria edging away
from Iran and revising the rules for Hezbollah. The first 2 are of
particular interest.
PUBLICATION: analysis/background
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
SOURCE Reliability : D
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
The US is definitely luring Syria to distance itself from Iran, and
is using Iraq as the incentive. With the major redeployment of US
troops in Iraq,in preparation for their withdrawal within a year,
the US is suggesting that Syria fills in the gap and dilute Shiite
fixation on Iran. The Saudis who worked hard to reinstate Syrian
influence in Lebanon are in the process of convincing the US that
Syria can be an asset in Iraq.
The Iranians do not prefer to resort to violence in dealing with
Syria. The source agrees that Tehran has the option of using Sunni
militants against the regime in Damascus. He adds that Iran
realizes, however, that Sunni militants cannot topple the regime in
Damascus. As he puts it, the militants’ impact on the Syrian regime
is not any more significant than that of the Katuyshas on Israel’s
security. Iran has the capacity to blunt Syrian initiatives in Iraq
without making too much noise. He says Iraq is secure in Iranian
hands. He admits, however, that HZ in Lebanon would be the casualty.
He notes that Iraq is much more important for Iran than the status
of HZ in Lebanon. He does not belittle the significance of HZ for
Iranian regional policy. He notes, nevertheless, that a major aim of
Iran’s regional policy is control of Iraq.Making compromises on HZ
in Lebanon may be a price that Iran has to pay for maintaining its
hold on Iraq. He says the Shiites in Lebanon do not constitute a
majority and that their current influence in Lebanon is tenuous and
depends on regional developments. Iraq is a different matter and
Iranian interests there are strategic. He says that Iran will by no
means sacrifice HZ without putting a fight. He says it is still
premature to speculate. He concludes saying that Iran’s greatest
asset in Syria is that Israel is not interested in peace with
Damascus. The Syrians know it and this is why they are not yet ready
to burn bridges with Tehran.
PUBLICATION: analysis/background
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Current advisor to Bashar al Assad, used to
advise Hafiz
SOURCE Reliability : D
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
Syria has finally got Hizbullah by the neck. He admits that HZ has
the capacity for sabotage in Syria. They have established strong
connections with many Iraqi Shiites currently living in Syria and
have actually set up many sleeping cells in the country, but
especially in Greater Damascus. They have very limited contacts with
Sunni militants because the Syrians are in full charge of the
borders with Iraq. Sunnis in al-Jazeera region in Syria, which is
contiguous with al-Anbar province in Iraq, are aversive to Shiites
and do not welcome al-Qaeda militants. They were staunchly
pro-Saddam Hussein and are on good terms with the Iraqi Ba’th Party.
It will be difficult for the Iranians to send to Syria al-Qaeda
militants since the security forces there know their infiltration
routes and likely contacts in the country. He says Sunni militants
cannot topple the regime in Damascus. The regime’s policy in dealing
with them is harsh and employs the “flattening” concept. By this he
refers to the policy of the late Hafiz Asad in dealing with the
Brotherhood’s insurgency in Hama in 1982.
Syria has no plan on taking on HZ in Lebanon as long as it does not
violate the existing rules of the game as they have been revised by
Syria, i.e., no takeover of Beirut. He says Syria knows how to keep
HZ bogged down in Lebanon and how to preoccupy it with petty
security concerns. He says what happened in Beirut last night is an
example of what Syria can do to HZ. He agrees that the clash between
HZ and al-Ahbash started over a personal matter, but Syrian agents
immediately took advantage of the situation and widened the scope of
the conflict.HZ knows that they are under strict orders to avoid
overrunning Beirut. He says Syria can easily repeat on a regular
basis last night’s incident. It takes no effort to start a fight
over a personal matter. As the source says: “the Lebanese have
strong egos. They are always eager to pull the trigger.” He says HZ
does not want to be drawn into routine skirmishes in the alleys of
Beirut because that would discredit it even among its own Shiite
partisans. Syria will tame HZ into submission.
PUBLICATION: analysis/background
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish diplomat
SOURCE Reliability : C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
Turkey will not allow Iran/HZ to destabilize the Asad regime. The
only group in Syria that has the potential to challenge the regime
is the Brotherhood.Turkey has great influence on the Brotherhood,
especially after it hosted its most recent congress in Istanbul,
which led to the rise to power of the radical Hama faction within
the movement. He says the new Brotherhood leadership will never take
aim at the Asad regime without Turkish authorization. He adds that
subversive acts against the Asad regime by other militant groups
will not amount to much. The Iranians know that the stability of the
Asad regime is a red line and that Turkey will not tolerate any
attempt to undermine it. Turkey has won over Hamas in Gaza. The
process of cornering Iran has begun, even though Turkey does not
have ill feelings, or sinister motives towards Iran.
intelligenceleaks 
