Iranian connections into the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Syria

Posted by intelligenceleaks

We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the email´s source) ;

“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”

The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.

the email ends with the quote:

“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com

Text

Spot on

On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>

###

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize

On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa

On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17716.0.html

Muslim Brotherhood with deep connections into Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria and Gaza

Posted by intelligenceleaks

The following EMail shows you the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the middle east, north africa connections and the arbaic world. the muslim brotherhood seems to play a big role in all this arab protests uprising all around the arab world. the EMails verified stratfor contact again comes from the FBI another part of this EMail is a “Syrian businessman with family links to the regime” – it gives you a short view of situation doen there and a view over the conflicts spreading around the countrys also the involvement of the muslim brotherhood.

Re: DISCUSSION – MB troubles

Date 2011-02-28 19:46:32
From burton@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1703833745.930286.1298918683296.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

A few weeks back, I posted some info from the FBI on the status of the
MB in CONUS, if it helps.

Reva Bhalla wrote:
> To follow up Kamran’s big piece on the MB, would be a good idea to do
> a shorter follow-up assessment on the status of MB in Egypt
> (post-mubarak), Syria and Jordan
>
> Egyptian MB seems to be in trouble, no longer as capable of keeping a
> liberal face to the protest movement. this identity crisis is causing
> fractures within the movement as we saw today between the MB youth and
> the older leadership
>
> Syrian MB is trying to work up the guts, but they still fear a Hama repeat
>
> Jordanian MB is being accommodated by the king, but they are also
> being shown their limits
>
> Kamran, any thoughts on how coordination between the MB branches has
> evolved since the Eygpt unrest broke out? what are these guys saying
> on their email lists?
>
> ————————————————————————
> *From: *”Reva Bhalla”
> *To: *”Analyst List”
> *Sent: *Monday, February 28, 2011 12:40:02 PM
> *Subject: *INSIGHT – Syria/Libya/MB – MB protest plans and bashar’s
> diss to Q
>
>
> PUBLICATION: for analysis
> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Syrian businessman with family links to the regime
> SOURCE Reliability : C
> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
> DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>
> ** love the syrian excuse given to Q
>
> the Syrian MB is closely coordinating with the MB in Egypt, Jordan,
> Libya and Gaza and observing the course of developments in Libya. They
> expect the imminent demise in Qhaddafi and want to develop a mechanism
> for toppling Asad on the basis of what they learn from the experiences
> of protesters in other Arab countries. It would be foolish to try to
> oust Asad because the regime will react with unprecedented use of
> force. The MB have already decided on starting their protest in
> Aleppo in northern Syria. The MB are encouraged by the fact that
> Aleppo, which is Syria’s second largest city (although there are
> people in Syria who argue that the Aleppo Metropolis is the country’s
> largest), is only 20 kms away from the Turkish borders. They do not
> think the Turkish government will allow the regime in Damascus to use
> excessive violence against Aleppo which they make historical claims
> to. Syrian officials are contacting their Turkish counterparts to
> ensure Ankara does not intervene in the north. It is most unlikely
> that protests can initiate in Damascus, Homs or Hama because the
> regime can abort them immediately. Aleppo is another matter because
> this large city has never accepted inclusion in the state of Syria and
> had always wanted to be included in Iraq.
>
> The source added that Libyan president Mu’ammar Qhaddafi has called
> president Bashar Asad three times to request military assistance. He
> says Qhaddafi promised Asad billions of dollars if he could send
> troops by sea to Libya to defeat the insurgents. Asad told him he is
> unable to do so because the Syrian army is tied to the Golan front in
> anticipation of an Israeli attack

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17690.0.html

INSIGHT – SYRIA/IRAN – Can Iran counter Syria/Saudi plans for HZ?

Posted by intelligenceleaks

The following Stratfor EMail is from 2010-08-26 00:05:54 and gives you a point of view on the Iranian / Syrian and Saudi Relations and problems in 2010.

Date 2010-08-26 00:05:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId: <4C7593C2.7070302@stratfor.com>
InReplyTo: 35F03B4E-85E5-4D68-949A-0E7F5B4E963C@stratfor.com

Text

Geography (as opposed to demography) explains why Iraq is a much bigger
priority for Iran than Lebanon. From the Iranian pov, they can’t achieve
much more than what they have already in Lebanon because they are
dependent upon Syrian cooperation which is waning. And because of the
Saudi moves. Rather the ones from the Turks, whom the Iranians don’t want
to irk. From the Iranians pov, Lebanon is a key outpost of Iranian
influence but with limited value. They have to compete with the Syrians,
Saudis, and Turks. Not to mention the Israelis. Ideally, the IRI after it
was established would have liked to focus on Iraq as opposed to Lebanon
but it couldn’t because of the Baathist regime there and the war it
imposed on the Iranians. In contrast, the ’82 Israeli invasion of Lebanon
provided the Iranians with an opening. They had help from the Syrians who
at the time were enemies of the Iraqis, had the Israeli threat, which was
magnified because of the Turkish-Israeli alignment, and were also seen as
a pariah in the Arab world because of the Alawite nature of the regime.
So, Damascus sought alignment with Iran. Now that the regional dynamics
have shifted, the Syrians are in the process of putting some distance
between themselves and the Iranians, Tehran sees that it may not be able
to manage its Lebanese asset as it used to though it needs it to keep the
Israelis from attacking them. This is why Iran despite seeing Iraq as the
priority will not yield on Hezbollah without a fight. In the end, what
will happen is that Hezbollah’s status as the premier non-state Iranian
proxy will be reduced several notches down to where it will be a
pro-Iranian political force in Lebanon. For the Saudis and the Arabs, if
they can achieve this then they would have compensated for the loss of
Iraq. For them the Iranian threat becomes much more manageable as long as
they don’t have to worry about the Iranians being in their front and
backyard.
Link: themeData
Link: colorSchemeMapping
On 8/25/2010 5:49 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

er, sorry. that should say Syria edging away from Iran* below
On Aug 25, 2010, at 4:47 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

the first report really interested me because in considering who the
source is, who I think likes to channel information to the admin
through us, Iran may be trying to signal that they’re not worried
about what the US/Saudi/Turkey are doing with Syria and HZ — that’s
not what is going to compel them to negotiate. Their focus is on Iraq,
and they know they have the upper hand there. THen, think about the
serial bombings today…
On Aug 25, 2010, at 4:44 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

3 different reports from 3 different sources on Syria edging away
from Iran and revising the rules for Hezbollah. The first 2 are of
particular interest.
PUBLICATION: analysis/background
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
SOURCE Reliability : D
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
The US is definitely luring Syria to distance itself from Iran, and
is using Iraq as the incentive. With the major redeployment of US
troops in Iraq,in preparation for their withdrawal within a year,
the US is suggesting that Syria fills in the gap and dilute Shiite
fixation on Iran. The Saudis who worked hard to reinstate Syrian
influence in Lebanon are in the process of convincing the US that
Syria can be an asset in Iraq.
The Iranians do not prefer to resort to violence in dealing with
Syria. The source agrees that Tehran has the option of using Sunni
militants against the regime in Damascus. He adds that Iran
realizes, however, that Sunni militants cannot topple the regime in
Damascus. As he puts it, the militants’ impact on the Syrian regime
is not any more significant than that of the Katuyshas on Israel’s
security. Iran has the capacity to blunt Syrian initiatives in Iraq
without making too much noise. He says Iraq is secure in Iranian
hands. He admits, however, that HZ in Lebanon would be the casualty.
He notes that Iraq is much more important for Iran than the status
of HZ in Lebanon. He does not belittle the significance of HZ for
Iranian regional policy. He notes, nevertheless, that a major aim of
Iran’s regional policy is control of Iraq.Making compromises on HZ
in Lebanon may be a price that Iran has to pay for maintaining its
hold on Iraq. He says the Shiites in Lebanon do not constitute a
majority and that their current influence in Lebanon is tenuous and
depends on regional developments. Iraq is a different matter and
Iranian interests there are strategic. He says that Iran will by no
means sacrifice HZ without putting a fight. He says it is still
premature to speculate. He concludes saying that Iran’s greatest
asset in Syria is that Israel is not interested in peace with
Damascus. The Syrians know it and this is why they are not yet ready
to burn bridges with Tehran.
PUBLICATION: analysis/background
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Current advisor to Bashar al Assad, used to
advise Hafiz
SOURCE Reliability : D
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
Syria has finally got Hizbullah by the neck. He admits that HZ has
the capacity for sabotage in Syria. They have established strong
connections with many Iraqi Shiites currently living in Syria and
have actually set up many sleeping cells in the country, but
especially in Greater Damascus. They have very limited contacts with
Sunni militants because the Syrians are in full charge of the
borders with Iraq. Sunnis in al-Jazeera region in Syria, which is
contiguous with al-Anbar province in Iraq, are aversive to Shiites
and do not welcome al-Qaeda militants. They were staunchly
pro-Saddam Hussein and are on good terms with the Iraqi Ba’th Party.

It will be difficult for the Iranians to send to Syria al-Qaeda
militants since the security forces there know their infiltration
routes and likely contacts in the country. He says Sunni militants
cannot topple the regime in Damascus. The regime’s policy in dealing
with them is harsh and employs the “flattening” concept. By this he
refers to the policy of the late Hafiz Asad in dealing with the
Brotherhood’s insurgency in Hama in 1982.

Syria has no plan on taking on HZ in Lebanon as long as it does not
violate the existing rules of the game as they have been revised by
Syria, i.e., no takeover of Beirut. He says Syria knows how to keep
HZ bogged down in Lebanon and how to preoccupy it with petty
security concerns. He says what happened in Beirut last night is an
example of what Syria can do to HZ. He agrees that the clash between
HZ and al-Ahbash started over a personal matter, but Syrian agents
immediately took advantage of the situation and widened the scope of
the conflict.HZ knows that they are under strict orders to avoid
overrunning Beirut. He says Syria can easily repeat on a regular
basis last night’s incident. It takes no effort to start a fight
over a personal matter. As the source says: “the Lebanese have
strong egos. They are always eager to pull the trigger.” He says HZ
does not want to be drawn into routine skirmishes in the alleys of
Beirut because that would discredit it even among its own Shiite
partisans. Syria will tame HZ into submission.
PUBLICATION: analysis/background
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish diplomat
SOURCE Reliability : C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

Turkey will not allow Iran/HZ to destabilize the Asad regime. The
only group in Syria that has the potential to challenge the regime
is the Brotherhood.Turkey has great influence on the Brotherhood,
especially after it hosted its most recent congress in Istanbul,
which led to the rise to power of the radical Hama faction within
the movement. He says the new Brotherhood leadership will never take
aim at the Asad regime without Turkish authorization. He adds that
subversive acts against the Asad regime by other militant groups
will not amount to much. The Iranians know that the stability of the
Asad regime is a red line and that Turkey will not tolerate any
attempt to undermine it. Turkey has won over Hamas in Gaza. The
process of cornering Iran has begun, even though Turkey does not
have ill feelings, or sinister motives towards Iran.

WikiLeaks

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-21-00-insight-syria-iran-can-iran-counter-syria.html

WikiLeaks Forum

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17642.0.html

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