Iranian connections into the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Syria

Posted by intelligenceleaks

We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the email´s source) ;

“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”

The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.

the email ends with the quote:

“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com

Text

Spot on

On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>

###

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize

On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa

On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17716.0.html

Background info on Chinese intelligence/political figures

Posted by intelligenceleaks

The following EMail(s) are/is again is from a Former FBI FCI agent – it gives you a short view into the history of chinese intelligence work and the political figures behind and involved. the internal problems and the near future of chinese intelligence services. the EMail is dated -2010-03-05 17:17:18-

Re: INSIGHT-CHINA-Background info on Chinese intelligence/political figures
Date 2010-03-05 17:17:18

From burton@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4B912E59.60409@stratfor.com

Text

Yes

Sean Noonan wrote:
> this was from IC Smith right? (collating all the insight and adding a
> few modification to the CI China piece right now)
>
> Fred Burton wrote:
>> Interesting historical perspective.
>>
>> Kang sounds like a ruthless SOB.
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: * Korena Zucha
>> *Date: *Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:06:03 -0600
>> *To: *’Secure List’
>> *Subject: *INSIGHT-CHINA-Background info on Chinese
>> intelligence/political figures
>>
>> SOURCE: US701
>> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former FBI FCI agent
>> PUBLICATION: if desired
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing, relatively new source
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
>> DISTRIBUTION: Secure
>> SPECIAL HANDLING: None
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
>>
>> One of the characteristics of Chinese politics and this applies to the
>> intelligence/security agencies as well, is that rank is not always a
>> firm indicator of importance and power. Remember, Deng Xiaoping never
>> succeeded either Chairman Mao or Premier Zhou, but he was
>> unquestionably the man in charge. It is clear that Kang retained
>> great power and there are those who think Li Kenong was essentially
>> his mouthpiece. I’m not completely sure that’s the case, but at any
>> rate, Kang continued to wield immense power, really up to his death in
>> 1975. But historically I think he falls in that rather gray area
>> where they would just as soon that he is forgotten, but no one has the
>> courage to pull the trigger. And this is, in my view, for two
>> reasons. He was simply brutal (I’ve often times said that never in
>> the history of conflict have the two opposing intelligence chiefs been
>> so completely sadistic as was Kang Sheng and Dai Li.) and given that
>> historical brutality (where he is said to have killed more of his
>> friends than his enemies) it is easy for Chinese today to really not
>> want to remember him. In many ways, I find Kang the single most
>> interesting character coming out of the Chinese Civil War.
>>
>> But also, there is Kang’s role starting the Cultural Revolutionl.
>> Note how the Chinese treat the Gang of Four for instance, relegating
>> them to memories trash can, except to further dump on them, but Kang,
>> (and Mao) have escaped such criticism, relatively speaking. Kang was
>> never threatened during the CR as was Deng and others…including even
>> some of the more prominent generals, i.e.He Long. But most of the
>> future leaders were indeed, treated harshly by the Red Guards (one of
>> Deng’s sons, Deng Pufeng, was thrown out of a window and is in a
>> wheelchair today) and when I chatted with my friend who was affiliated
>> with the MPS/MSS, even he didn’t really want to discuss Kang.
>>
>> I think Kang is one of the more intriguing characters in Chinese
>> history that hasn’t gotten the notoriety and attention he really
>> deserves, though such books as those by Byron and Pack (The Claws of
>> the Dragon) and Faligot and Kauffer (The Chinese Secret Service) are
>> good starts.
>>
>> But his completely sinister background (though he is said to have been
>> able to write calligraphy with both hands, at the same time!) and his
>> role in the CR are the reasons, I believe, he isn’t lionized as
>> perhaps others, i.e. Mao, Zhou Enlai, Deng, Zhe De (who was treated
>> harshly during the CR), He Long, etc. etc.
>>
>> Re Zhou Yangkang….I don’t really know the extent of his influence,
>> but I doubt its as powerful as Kang’s was at the height of his power.
>> Actually, I’m of the opinion that one of the reasons Deng Xiaoping
>> formed the MSS is that he didn’t trust the MPS, which was Kang’s
>> organization and had treated Deng himself badly during the CR. But I
>> have no real idea as to the extent of Zhou’s influence.
>>
>> And as for Jia, he too, seems to have dropped off the scope in many
>> ways. I don’t know if that’s by choice or by design on the part of
>> the ruling elite, but he seems to be in complete
>> retirement…..something that didn’t use to occur in China, especially
>> for those on the reviewing stands, etc. I havent heard of him of him
>> in quite some time…had actually rather forgotten about him. But I
>> should tell you, I don’t keep up with the current comings and goings
>> in China to the extent I did when I had to work for a living.
>
> —
> Sean Noonan
> ADP- Tactical Intelligence
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> http://www.stratfor.com

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17688.0.html

Chinas Jasmine Googlegroup organizer in contact with Stratfor Intelligence

Posted by intelligenceleaks

This is way interessting inside view of stratfor contacts in china. the person (stratfor source) belongs to be the leader of one of the biggest jasmin revolution google groups and is/was in contact with stratfor intelligence agents via the demonstrations.Strfaor describes the Source as: ” Main person listed on the Jasmine google groups”

you can read the full EMail in the following lines.

MORE Re: INSIGHT- US/CHINA- Jasmine Googlegroup organizer on AP article

Date 2011-04-08 14:35:06
From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
To zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 2107022585.1762098.1302201264693.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

*with coding this time.=C2= =A0=C2=A0 Still do not know how legit he is,
but he is willing to talk through the whole story of their
development.=C2=A0 this could become= a very good ongoing conversation,
and I will have to be careful with this analysis we are putting out
now.=C2=A0 ZZ, please take a look at the edit version and doublecheck my
bias towards his ‘majority in china’ argument [which I don’t believe].

SOURCE: CN507
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Main person listed on the Jasmine google
groups.=C2=A0=C2=A0
PUBLICATION: As needed.=C2=A0= =C2=A0
SOURCE RELIABILITY: C [still trying to feel this out]
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SPECIAL HANDLING: none=C2=A0
SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

Yes, I am involved in “the Initiators” group at certain degree, though I
believe the word “the Initiators” is some kind of misleading, since no one
in this group really involved the organizing of the first gathering. I am
not involved in Hong Kong group. Recently, my role has been shifted to
coordinator to liaison between groups. I have connects to all groups
except one, which also calls themselves initiators. Based on very limit
information, I believe this group’s majority members located in China.

We indeed do have some kind of coordinate problem. Too many people want to
be in leading position. So far, at lease three groups have active members
in China. So the question is not the coordination but the communication,
how to let more people in China know there is such movement.

On 4/7/11 1:34 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

This is all he said on the article below:

This group is one of the two largest currently. I reckon it ranks
second. The other one bases on Hong Kong.

———————————————————————-

From: “Michael Wilson”
To: “The OS List”
Sent: Wednesday, April 6, 2011 7:09:42 AM
Subject: [OS] CHINA/US/CSM – AP Exclusive: Group in China protest
calls=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0= emerges

AP Exclusive: Group in China protest calls emerges
AP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110406/ap_on_re_as=
/as_china_jasmine_revealed;_ylt=3DAnh.nz1_n.j8ZGquz8f2vQhvaA8F;_ylu=3DX3oDM=
TJ1am9zZWw3BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNDA2L2FzX2NoaW5hX2phc21pbmVfcmV2ZWFsZWQEcG9z=
AzYEc2VjA3luX2FydGljbGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNhcGV4Y2x1c2l2ZWc-
By GILLIAN WONG, Associated Press Gillian Wong, Associated Press
=E2=80=93 1 hr 40 mins ago

SEOUL, South Korea =E2=80=93 Strolling past hip cafes, the young Ch=
inese man in a white sports jacket and faded jeans looks like any other
university student in the South Korean capital. But the laptop in his
black backpack is a tool in a would-be revolution in China.

The 22-year-old computer science student is part of a group behind
appeals that started popping up anonymously on the Internet seven weeks
ago calling on Chinese to stage peaceful protests to get the ruling
Communist Party to move toward democracy. Those calls have spooked the
government into launching one of its broadest campaigns of repression in
years to keep the protests from catching on, as they have in the Middle
East and North Africa.

The Associated Press tracked down the student and some of his
colleagues, giving an exclusive first look at one group of campaigners
behind the online petitions, where they are based and how they use
technology to operate behind the anonymity of the Internet.

Their group, they said, is a network of 20 mostly highly educated, young
Chinese with eight members inside China and 12 in more than half a dozen
other countries.

Calling itself “The Initiators and Organizers of the Chinese Jasmine
Revolution” after a phrase used in the Tunisian uprising, the group is
not the sole source of the protest calls; at least four others have
sprung up. “The Initiators” group appears well-organized, with members
tasked to recruit, manage social networking sites and gather feedback.

Interviews with four members show similar evolutions: They grew to
resent the government’s autocratic rule and China’s widespread
inequality and injustice. The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt made change
look possible.

“People born in the late ’80s and the ’90s have basically decided that
in their generation one-party rule cannot possibly outlive them, cannot
possibly even continue in their lifetimes. This is for certain,” the
lean, soft-spoken 22-year-old who goes by the Internet alias “Forest
Intelligence” told The AP in an interview Sunday at a cafe in Seoul’s
trendy Samcheong-dong district.

While the calls for weekly demonstrations every Sunday in dozens of
cities have attracted many onlookers and few outright protesters, their
impact is clear. The government has responded with more police on the
streets, more intrusive Internet monitoring and the detention,
disappearance or arrest of more than 200 people. Artist and government
critic Ai Weiwei seems to be the latest, taken into custody over the
weekend. The group said none of those detained have been involved with
their protest calls.

Members of the group requested anonymity out of concern that they or
their families might be targeted for retribution by the government,
which maintains an extensive network of informants among student groups
overseas. Most members know each other only by Internet nicknames.

They also are concerned that, with more than half their members outside
China, their movement might be seen as a foreign-backed, anti-China plot
rather than a response to real domestic problems.

“The revolution was started purely because of the failure of domestic
affairs, not because of overseas forces,” said “Hua Ge,” a Columbia
University graduate in classics who lives in New York and at 27 years
old is one of the group’s older members. He recruited the others.

The first online calls for a Chinese “Jasmine Revolution” =E2=80=94= a
Twitter post on Feb. 17 and a longer appeal on the U.S.-based Chinese
news site Boxun.com on Feb. 19 =E2=80=94 remain anonymous. = Soon after
they appeared, Hua Ge said that he, together with a man in China that he
refused to identify, started the website Molihuaxingdong.blogspot.com.

“Molihuaxingdong” is Chinese for “Jasmine Movement” and it has evolved
to include a Facebook page, a Twitter feed, and Google groups for every
Chinese province or territory. Many of the sites are blocked in China,
but remain effective because so many Chinese know how to elude
government blocks, said Hua Ge.

“People need to have some change in their thinking,” said Hua Ge, a
native of the central Chinese city of Wuhan. “They don’t really
understand what rights they have, or what kind of political future they
can choose.”

Their main Google group has more than online 1,200 users, though how
many are inside China is unclear. An online survey posted in February
received 300 responses, mostly from people in China, members said, and
the group gets 50 to 100 emails daily from participants in the country.

Outside China, members are in France, Australia, Canada, Korea and
Japan, among other countries. “Forest Intelligence” oversees the
recruitment of volunteers and maintains the website. “Xiaomo,” a
24-year-old college student in Paris, collates comments from surveys.
Boston-based student “Pamela Wang,” 18, translates news articles into
Chinese and is one of eight administrators of the group’s Facebook page.

The eight members in China include an expert in online search engines, a
former government employee who writes articles and someone who works on
the website’s layout, said Hua Ge. He refused to provide their contact
information or reveal details about them out of concerns for their
safety.

Hua Ge said the group also has consulted Wang Juntao, a prominent
dissident sentenced to 13 years in prison for advising students during
the 1989 pro-democracy protests centered on Tiananmen Square. Freed on
medical parole in 1993, Wang now lives in New York and confirmed his
assistance.

Collectively, the group’s postings are often clever with a touch of
sarcasm. People are urged to “stroll” and “smile” rather than protest.
“We are making a new history of revolution by a unique way: We use the
sound of laughter, singing and salutations instead of the sound of guns,
cannons and warplanes!” a notice dated March 1 said.

Online security is a major concern, and group members are constantly in
touch. On Sunday, Forest Intelligence showed an AP reporter his laptop,
on which was installed a virtual machine =E2= =80=94 an operating system
within the computer’s normal operating system that provides an extra
layer of protection against hackers.

As soon as he logged on, Skype and Gmails chat services blinked with new
messages. “Are you back yet?” wrote Xiaomo, who then relayed news that
activist-artist Ai Weiwei was prevented from getting on a flight to Hong
Kong. Less than an hour later, the news was posted on the group’s
website.

On Tuesday, the group released an Internet safety manual to help Chinese
users circumvent censors and issued another statement deploring the
current crackdown. It warned that if activists were not released by
April 10, they would retaliate by using “search engine optimization”
techniques so that when Chinese do online searches for names of
officials the results will link to reports about corruption.

The group has no illusions that change, if any, will come soon, but is
willing to wait years to gather momentum.

“Some people say this movement is going to die and this movement is not
going to be successful like that in Tunisia or Egypt, but in those
countries, it took three or four years for the people to make
preparations and finally, there was a peaceful transition,” Hua Ge said.
“It may take a period of time for the people to wake up, so the longer
we continue our efforts the more people will know about the situation
and join us.”
Follow Yahoo! News on Twitter, become a fan on Facebook

–=20
Michael Wilson
Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
Email: michael.wilson@st=
ratfor.com

—
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
http://www.stratfor.com

—

Sean Noonan

Tactical Analyst

Office: +1 512-279-9479

Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

http://www.stratfor.com

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-24-00-chinas-jasmine-googlegroup-organizer-in.html

The WikiLeaks Forum
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17682.0.html

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