Killings By US-Drones Part 1 – Anwar al-Awlaki Death Operation

The Following Stratfor EMail was written short after the US Drone Killing of the so called (since 2001) CIA Al-Quaida most wanted hit list. This case was a brake of all rules of human rights the US of A stands for by President Barack Hussein Obama II and the Bush Administration because they set him on a Kill List and wanted him dead.

The headhunting CIA suceeded this operation in late 2011, exactly on september 30th 2011.

The following EMail from strafor is giving you a great view into the connection between different intelligence agencys. Anwar al-Awlaki was murdered by a drone strike in yemen on sept. 30th it did not take long Stratfor Intelligence Service get the information of the succeed kill strike the same day.

Question posed to source:

Got any idea where we nailed Awlaki in your old goat stomping grounds?

Source response:

I understand it was in the south near Aden by drones. Good shot, I must say.

Drone Strike killing by a Predator 2 Drones.

My apologies — wrong source code was used on this one — please note
the change to SA701.

More info from the same source — question posed:

Indeed! Think manned or Global Hawk?

Response from source —

Unmanned from what I understand.

ATTRIBUTION: None
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Riyadh-based US security official
PUBLICATION: For background only
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

Anwar al-Awlaki´s son – 16 years old was killed 2 weeks later the same way by US Officials ordered drone strikes.

This is part one of a series you can follow now on Intelligence Leaks all about WikiLeaks Global Intelligence Files and US Drone Killings in different countries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_al-Awlaki

Talk about:

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17576.0.html

Source:

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-17-00-alpha-more-insight-yemen-awlaki-death-op-sa701.html

THE ASSASSINATION OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH: A CLOSER LOOK

This Text is from a Stratfor INSIGHT PDF or DocX Document it is about the Assasination of OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH.

The assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh (Arabic: محمود المبحوح‎, Maḥmūd al-Mabḥūḥ) (14 February 1961 – 19 January 2010) took place on 19 January 2010, in a Dubai hotel room. Al-Mabhouh—a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the IslamistPalestinian group Hamas—was wanted by the Israeli government for the kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers in 1989 as well as purchasing arms from Iran for use in Gaza; these have been cited as a possible motive for the assassination.^[1] He also had many other enemies including Fatah (whose members “loathed” him), Egypt had imprisoned him for all of 2003, and Jordan’s intelligence services were looking for him.^[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Mahmoud_Al-Mabhouh

This was an Mossad Israelian Operation behind own lines on the field of Dubai. This Insight will give a view more details on that actions also you will find WikiLeaks Related Cables of this Story right here:

http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=10ABUDHABI103&q=al-mabhouh%20mahmoud

http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=10DUBAI29&q=al-mabhouh%20mahmoud

The Following text is a copie from a Stratfor Intelligence Document and will give you another insight view of the Assasination.

THE ASSASSINATION OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH: A CLOSER LOOK

Editor’s Note: This intelligence brief is based on information and insight that STRATFOR analysts believe would be of interest to our clients and aid them in their security planning.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was found dead Jan. 20 in his room at Al-Bustan hotel in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Al-Mabhouh was a senior Hamas military commander and one of the founders of the Izz al-Deen al-Qassam Brigades. He was traveling to Dubai for an unknown meeting, presumably on sensitive Hamas business. According to STRATFOR sources, he had stopped in Dubai on his way to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials about prospective arms sales to Hamas. Al-Mabhouh was traveling without security. According to one report, this was due to the inability to purchase airfare for his bodyguards, though we suspect there might have been an operational reason for him to travel alone.

Dubai law enforcement authorities have ruled out natural causes in al-Mabhouh’s death and have identified as many as 17 individuals (15 men and two women) believed to have participated in the assassination on Jan. 19. Dubai law enforcement officials were able to track 11 of the 17 individuals through closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage back to their arrival at the Dubai International Airport 19 hours before the hit. The 11 individuals traveled to Dubai on passports from Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. They arrived at different times from different locations around Europe approximately 14 hours before al-Mabhouh arrived. The team also used several different high-pedestrian-traffic locations throughout Dubai — including at least three hotels and a shopping center — as meeting locations, logistics hubs and staging sites prior to the assassination.

Additionally, Dubai law enforcement officials were able to identify several reportedly encrypted international phone calls made from the phones of the suspected members of the assassination team to numbers in Austria, where Dubai authorities suspect a command and control center for the operation was based. The members of the teams had attempted to alter their physical appearance to varying degrees, from simply wearing a hat to donning wigs and glasses. Furthermore, the demeanor of the team members viewed in the CCTV footage did not deviate from that of any ordinary tourist or businessman who frequents Dubai, which indicates a high level of experience and professionalism.

Throughout the CCTV footage, it is very clear that the 17 members of the teams carried out specific roles in the operation. At least four surveillance teams were identified; three of the four teams appeared to work in pairs, while it seemed the fourth “team” consisted of a single individual. Another individual, who appeared to be the senior commander of the operation, apparently reserved the room across the hall from where al-Mabhouh was staying. The remaining seven members of the group appeared to serve as lookouts outside al-Mabhouh’s room and as the actual assassins.

The Operation Under Way

Prior to al-Mabhouh’s arrival in Dubai, the surveillance teams were positioned at the airport and at two hotels that al-Mabhouh was known to frequent when he traveled to Dubai. Once he arrived at Al-Bustan, two surveillance operatives located in the lobby were seen following him to his room. Once his room number had been confirmed, the two surveillants contacted the rest of the team, who then moved to Al-Bustan, where the hotel room across the hall from al-Mabhouh’s was reserved by the senior commander. Al-Mabhouh then left Al-Bustan for a meeting with an unknown individual. CCTV footage shows one of the surveillance operatives watching al-Mabhouh get into a vehicle and then apparently describing the vehicle to others via cell phone.

After al-Mabhouh’s departure, two men and a woman, wearing wigs and glasses, and two two-man assassin teams staged themselves in the room across the hall from al-Mabhouh’s room. Upon his return to Al-Bustan, al-Mabhouh is seen passing a disguised man and woman, who take up lookout positions near the elevator and outside al-Mabhouh’s room. Al-Mabhouh is intercepted and killed in his room by the two assassin teams. The surveillance teams then leave the premises, followed by the assassin teams and finally by the disguised team members. The 11 identified individuals flew out of Dubai International Airport between two and 10 hours after the assassination to different locations — such as South Africa, Hong Kong, Germany, France and Switzerland — long before a hotel cleaning crew discovered al-Mabhouh’s body at approximately 1:30 p.m. local time on Jan. 20.

The arrival of the team members 19 hours ahead of the operation and 14 hours ahead of al-Mabhouh indicates that the group or organization had prior knowledge of al-Mabhouh’s travel plans. Additionally, the coordinated movements and logistics involved in the operation typically require an advance team in place ahead of the assassination team’s arrival. Throughout the CCTV footage, some members of the team, specifically the actual assassins, seemed mindful of the surveillance cameras and moved in such a way as to block a direct view of their faces, while others were not as careful.

The team’s movements throughout the operation were methodical, calculated and well-choreographed. Their outward demeanor immediately before and after the killing was smooth and did not deviate from that of regular Dubai visitors. The tactics, tradecraft and logistics involved in this operation were well beyond the capabilities of known terror organizations and all but a few national intelligence services. While the CCTV footage does not offer any clues as to who carried out the assassination, is does display a high and rare degree of professionalism.

Protection Concerns

While al-Mabhouh was clearly engaged in questionable activities that made him a target for assassination, there are valuable lessons that can be learned from studying the tactics and tradecraft used in this operation as outlined in the videos found at these links:
(Part 1)

(Part 2)

(Part 3)

Many executive protection (EP) teams spend a great deal of time with their principals in foreign four- and five-star hotels similar to Al-Bustan. While these hotels offer a significantly higher level of security than some other venues, the assassination of al¬Mabouh is a clear example that there can be security risks inside the confines of even a high-end hotel.

Hotels are considered by many security teams to be relatively safe environments, and in a typical EP hotel scenario, designated members of the team, usually one close-protection agent (though occasionally two agents are used), escort the principal to and from his or her room. In some cases, the principal may even move around the hotel to use the gym, eat or attend meetings without his protection team.

The number of attackers involved in the assassination of al-Mabhouh could easily have overpowered one or two close-protection agents, especially if the assassins were able to achieve the element of surprise and were skilled fighters or used weapons. Furthermore, in such a scenario, the close-protection agent(s) would likely be targeted first, to remove the danger they pose before focusing on the principal.

The skill and degree of surveillance exhibited in the al-Mabhouh assassination would have been difficult for an EP team or targeted principal to detect and defend against. It is very difficult for EP agents to focus much attention on surveillance detection, especially in the case of a one- or two-man team. This underscores the need for a comprehensive and professionally trained countersurveillance (CS) team in such situations. The CS team focuses on the events and actors surrounding the principal and the EP detail, and by its very nature is in a far better position to detect hostile surveillance than close-protection agents are.

The surveillance of al-Mabhouh observed on the CCTV footage would likely have been picked up by a deployed CS team. The CS team could then have alerted the EP team to possible threats and allowed the EP team to increase the level of protection and/or notify the appropriate authorities. The very presence of a CS team could also serve to raise the risk of conducting such an operation to the point where another target would be selected.

The al-Mabhouh case also demonstrates the importance of EP teams keeping tabs on the individuals who occupy the hotel rooms in close proximity to their principals. Such rooms can be used as ambush sites when the principal walks through the hall, and in some cases, they can be used to gain entry to the principal’s room through adjoining doorways or from the exterior of the building.

Click to access 24875_DUBAI_brief_100219.pdf

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php?topic=17438.0

####

DUBAI brief final doc & pdf
Date    2010-02-19 19:29:54
From    mccullar@stratfor.com
To    alfano@stratfor.com
scott.stewart@stratfor.com
alex.posey@stratfor.com
Others    InReplyTo: 6670C261-657D-4B3E-AE15-88655672F734@stratfor.com
Attachments

24874_DUBAI_brief 100219_final.doc (476KiB)
24875_DUBAI_brief_100219.pdf (112.2KiB)

Text
Here ya go.
—
Michael McCullar
Senior Editor, Special Projects
STRATFOR
E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
Tel: 512.744.4307
Cell: 512.970.5425
Fax: 512.744.4334

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-10-00-dubai-brief-final-doc-and-pdf.html

 

Governmental Social Media Surveillance Leaked WikiLeaks Stratfor EMail

This Leak will give you proof that CIA, Stratfor and you can easy imagine other Shadow Surveillance Agencys are monitoring the world wide web social medias.

There was an AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter, Facebook Article

They are talking about in that following leaked EMails.

Have suspected this, but provides an idea of the scope of the
surveillance.

CIA Open Source Center in charge of following these social websites. Used
to provide a quick sweep of reaction to world events. Have several
hundred analysts. Follow about 5 million tweets a day. The listed
examples were to the death of UBL, social responses to Obama’s Middle East
speech. Started to use this media after the Green Revo. in Iran and how
Twitter impacted that. Thought that they would have started monitoring
these sites in a systematic way before that.

So what we all know and what we all thought before is now leaked and you have it black and white on your screen right now you as are reading this blogpost.

So there are three Points in that EMail and on two of those I want to shine some light on.

3 things
1. Their job is very very similar to ours with better resources and
different requirements
2. Note how they use, caveat, and compare their monitoring of social media
3. There is no organized monitoring of US domestic social media

 

1. Their job is very very similar to ours with better resources and
different requirements

so at the first point Stratfor (SF) says that they are monitoring the social media too like the CIA but the CIA has more massive Computers and resources than SF and different requirements. The CIA Open Source Center was created after the attacks of 9/11 for a better state of the art surveillance of citizens and terrorist activities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Source_Center

The OSC Leader at the moment is Douglas Naquin. you can imagine that within a more and more networked world through programs like facebook and twitter (spying machines) the resources must have been increased rapidly because we live in a new century of informations.

3. There is no organized monitoring of US domestic social media

this point I would call today a fail. because we know now that the NSA is building a huge Spy Center in USA Utah you can see and hear about this on Jacob Applebaums 29C3 keynote. So it is important to note that not only the CIA OSC, and Stratfor are monitoring Facebook and Twitter or other social medias – also The NSA and for sure Germanys BND and other surveillance Agencys are up into the great spying machine called the internet. and the social media networks are their most powerful tools.

watch full or start at 11:23.

the mail goes on with an important note of an agent.

3. Don’t bet on it. It’s just better hidden

So he claims to be that point 3 is not valid and the monitoring is just better hidden. this is an important note because it is NOT only the CIAs open source center who is monitoring all that social media networks there is more hidden surveillance in the state and all around the internet.

No, not OSC
From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
Reply-To: <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>, CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 17:50:07 +0000
To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
Subject: Re: [CT] US/SECURITY – AP Exclusive: CIA following Twitter,
Facebook
By the CIA OSC?

So what are those important points to know, what can you do to get not in the view of spys and secret agents. well this is way difficult to say. at first try to be anonymous as possible if you don´t want to get “”visited”” by unknown.

use often nicknames on the web. try things like the tor browser and use unix / Linux systems for a better control of your system. you can use VPN and create different mail accounts.

at least it is up to all of you with whom do you talk and what do you share – do you need your real name in facebook? do you need to post pictures of your friends or the latest party? think before posting. what is important what do you need to say and what is to much private information?

I am sure if someone would stay in your house or appartment watching you all the time face 2 face you do not know him and he is not much talking to you. you wouldn´t share or your personal stuff with him. you would ask him to leave.

Talk about this on WikiLeaks Forum (or on this blog 😉 )

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,14620.0.html

WikiLeaks:

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2012-09-16-00-cia-is-monitoring-facebook-and-twitter-similar.html

Mail Source:

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/741429_re-ct-us-security-ap-exclusive-cia-following-twitter.html

Pakistan Sept. 2011 – The Agency (CIA) Has Declared An Internal Intelligence War On ISI.

This Mail is from september 2011 and it is about the CIA and the ISI (Pakistan military Intelligence Agency = Inter-Services Intelligence) in Pakistan and it is about the opressing power of the USA in that country. Stratfor Member comments on this Insight View are like: “I find it more interesting that the Agency has declared an internal intelligence war on ISI” and more on that below on the EMail: “Nobody is trusted.” furthermore they say the “CIA” is using “Moscow Rules.” against Pakistan and the ISI.

“The Agency is operating against Pakistan with Moscow Rules.

ISI is an enemy combatant.

The EMail comes from a “STRATFOR’s Pakistani sources” the source said: “I am getting the sense that the United States has decided to coerce Pakistan into compliance.” …, further it goes “If it continues on its current path then the U.S. could escalate matters further and engage in fixed wing airstrikes against militant assets in North Waziristan….”the main Haqqani facility is next door to the Pak army divisional command in Miramshah.” The source call this a “collateral damage”…”So in addition to collateral damage given the densely populated area a U.S. assault on the facility could kill many Pak army personnel.”

you can read the full EMAil the following lines:

Re: INSIGHT – U.S./PAKISTAN – Behind the escalation ***PROTECT SOURCE& INTEL***

Date 2011-09-28 15:12:30
From burton@stratfor.com
To sean.noonan@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1233806656-1317215394-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-528774114-@b28.c15.bise6.blackberry

Text

Smoking gun, Libya levels after La Belle Disco bombing.

I find it more interesting that the Agency has declared an internal
intelligence war on ISI.

Nobody is trusted.

On 9/28/2011 8:09 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

I wonder how much signals intercept the US has to show the Paks
lying…….

———————————————————————-

From: Fred Burton
Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2011 08:05:26 -0500 (CDT)
To: Kamran Bokhari
Cc:
Subject: Re: INSIGHT – U.S./PAKISTAN – Behind the escalation ***PROTECT
SOURCE & INTEL***
The ISI-CIA battles have moved into a freezing Cold War. Temperature
has dropped significantly.

The Agency is operating against Pakistan with Moscow Rules.

ISI is an enemy combatant.

On 9/27/2011 8:47 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

SOURCE: PK00
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR’s Pakistani sources
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Pak ambo to DC
PUBLICATION: No
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B/C
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran

DC has told Islamabad. Help us reconcile with those under your
influence. As for those that are not under your control, either you
take em out or let us do so. The Haqqanis are not entirely under
Pakistani control. They do a lot of independent stuff.

There was a conversation that Islamabad facilitated in the UAE between
DC and the Haqqanis but then these guys turned around and engaged in a
series of attacks. But the Pakistanis aren’t willing to take action
against them. Spoke with Mullen who told me he has been lied to by his
Pak counterparts.

On the Pakistani side, the problem is that they deeply mistrust the
Americans and suspect that the U.S. is going behind its back and
cutting its own deals with the insurgents. Look at how Tayyeb Agha is
missing after the revelations that the U.S. was dealing with him to
reach Mullah Omar. I am getting the sense that the United States has
decided to coerce Pakistan into compliance.

Islamabad still has some time to help de-escalate matters but not a
whole lot. If it continues on its current path then the U.S. could
escalate matters further and engage in fixed wing airstrikes against
militant assets in North Waziristan. The problem has been that the
main Haqqani facility is next door to the Pak army divisional command
in Miramshah.

So in addition to collateral damage given the densely populated area a
U.S. assault on the facility could kill many Pak army personnel. There
is a growing U.S. view that it can always come back to working with
Pakistan. But for now it may need to get tough to shape behavior.

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/284258_re-insight-u-s-pakistan-behind-the-escalation-protect-source.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17765.0.html

Iranian connections into the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Syria

We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the email´s source) ;

“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”

The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.

the email ends with the quote:

“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com

Text

Spot on

On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>

###

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize

On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa

On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1139945_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1148366_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1155793_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17716.0.html

AFGHANISTAN´s private War – Investment by Blackwater and Others Private Security Contractors – 1.5 Billion Dollar

The next EMail gives you a view on Private Security Contractors in Afghanistan and the fincanially invovement of 1.5 Billion Dollar of this private security companys. the involvement has deep ties into the financial sectors – and it shows you clearly that war is money. the mail gives you also a view on who maybe is responsible in 2014 if the western army troops will leave the country completely.

INSIGHT – AFGHANISTAN – Private Security Contractors – AF3

Date 2010-10-27 15:04:22
From colibasanu@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: AANLkTimqAcJaWmjjKHZ1aQwJuWbnxyY=OGCNPah3fVGv@mail.gmail.com

Text

CODE: AF3
PUBLICATION: Analysis
DESCRIPTION: Senior correspondent for Reuters in Kabul, an Afghan national
ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
HANDLER: Kamran

Although under pressure from Washington to soften the decree and issue a
new joint ruling on the firms, Kabul is still defiant.
It has already seized hundreds of arms from smaller groups run by Afghan
companies as part of the process supposed to be completed by the end of
the year. those firms have closed now.
Those guarding compounds, companies, embassies and escorting
diplomats will be exempted from Karzai’s order.
There have been some bloody incidents by some members of the firms,
especially in the south in recent years.
The firms are not accountable to Kabul and in the face of the incidents
and with the ambitious plan for taking all security responsibilities by
2014, Karzai is keen to get this done.
Blackwater and few others run by some western officials are obviously not
happy because some 1.5 billion dollars are involved in the industry.
Hillary clinton rang Karzai on Saturday and the next day Karzai said he
would implement the ban and the following day we had new york times
talking how Karzai was getting cash in bags from Iran.
Also, Karzai a while back in a statement said the deadline for disbanding
the security firms will be extended until mid Feb.

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1806816_insight-afghanistan-private-security-contractors-af3-.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17691.0.html

Chinas Jasmine Googlegroup organizer in contact with Stratfor Intelligence

This is way interessting inside view of stratfor contacts in china. the person (stratfor source) belongs to be the leader of one of the biggest jasmin revolution google groups and is/was in contact with stratfor intelligence agents via the demonstrations.Strfaor describes the Source as: ” Main person listed on the Jasmine google groups”

you can read the full EMail in the following lines.

MORE Re: INSIGHT- US/CHINA- Jasmine Googlegroup organizer on AP article

Date 2011-04-08 14:35:06
From sean.noonan@stratfor.com
To zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com
secure@stratfor.com
Others MessageId:
InReplyTo: 2107022585.1762098.1302201264693.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

*with coding this time.=C2= =A0=C2=A0 Still do not know how legit he is,
but he is willing to talk through the whole story of their
development.=C2=A0 this could become= a very good ongoing conversation,
and I will have to be careful with this analysis we are putting out
now.=C2=A0 ZZ, please take a look at the edit version and doublecheck my
bias towards his ‘majority in china’ argument [which I don’t believe].

SOURCE: CN507
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Main person listed on the Jasmine google
groups.=C2=A0=C2=A0
PUBLICATION: As needed.=C2=A0= =C2=A0
SOURCE RELIABILITY: C [still trying to feel this out]
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
SPECIAL HANDLING: none=C2=A0
SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

Yes, I am involved in “the Initiators” group at certain degree, though I
believe the word “the Initiators” is some kind of misleading, since no one
in this group really involved the organizing of the first gathering. I am
not involved in Hong Kong group. Recently, my role has been shifted to
coordinator to liaison between groups. I have connects to all groups
except one, which also calls themselves initiators. Based on very limit
information, I believe this group’s majority members located in China.

We indeed do have some kind of coordinate problem. Too many people want to
be in leading position. So far, at lease three groups have active members
in China. So the question is not the coordination but the communication,
how to let more people in China know there is such movement.

On 4/7/11 1:34 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

This is all he said on the article below:

This group is one of the two largest currently. I reckon it ranks
second. The other one bases on Hong Kong.

———————————————————————-

From: “Michael Wilson”
To: “The OS List”
Sent: Wednesday, April 6, 2011 7:09:42 AM
Subject: [OS] CHINA/US/CSM – AP Exclusive: Group in China protest
calls=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0= emerges

AP Exclusive: Group in China protest calls emerges
AP
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110406/ap_on_re_as=
/as_china_jasmine_revealed;_ylt=3DAnh.nz1_n.j8ZGquz8f2vQhvaA8F;_ylu=3DX3oDM=
TJ1am9zZWw3BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNDA2L2FzX2NoaW5hX2phc21pbmVfcmV2ZWFsZWQEcG9z=
AzYEc2VjA3luX2FydGljbGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNhcGV4Y2x1c2l2ZWc-
By GILLIAN WONG, Associated Press Gillian Wong, Associated Press
=E2=80=93 1 hr 40 mins ago

SEOUL, South Korea =E2=80=93 Strolling past hip cafes, the young Ch=
inese man in a white sports jacket and faded jeans looks like any other
university student in the South Korean capital. But the laptop in his
black backpack is a tool in a would-be revolution in China.

The 22-year-old computer science student is part of a group behind
appeals that started popping up anonymously on the Internet seven weeks
ago calling on Chinese to stage peaceful protests to get the ruling
Communist Party to move toward democracy. Those calls have spooked the
government into launching one of its broadest campaigns of repression in
years to keep the protests from catching on, as they have in the Middle
East and North Africa.

The Associated Press tracked down the student and some of his
colleagues, giving an exclusive first look at one group of campaigners
behind the online petitions, where they are based and how they use
technology to operate behind the anonymity of the Internet.

Their group, they said, is a network of 20 mostly highly educated, young
Chinese with eight members inside China and 12 in more than half a dozen
other countries.

Calling itself “The Initiators and Organizers of the Chinese Jasmine
Revolution” after a phrase used in the Tunisian uprising, the group is
not the sole source of the protest calls; at least four others have
sprung up. “The Initiators” group appears well-organized, with members
tasked to recruit, manage social networking sites and gather feedback.

Interviews with four members show similar evolutions: They grew to
resent the government’s autocratic rule and China’s widespread
inequality and injustice. The uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt made change
look possible.

“People born in the late ’80s and the ’90s have basically decided that
in their generation one-party rule cannot possibly outlive them, cannot
possibly even continue in their lifetimes. This is for certain,” the
lean, soft-spoken 22-year-old who goes by the Internet alias “Forest
Intelligence” told The AP in an interview Sunday at a cafe in Seoul’s
trendy Samcheong-dong district.

While the calls for weekly demonstrations every Sunday in dozens of
cities have attracted many onlookers and few outright protesters, their
impact is clear. The government has responded with more police on the
streets, more intrusive Internet monitoring and the detention,
disappearance or arrest of more than 200 people. Artist and government
critic Ai Weiwei seems to be the latest, taken into custody over the
weekend. The group said none of those detained have been involved with
their protest calls.

Members of the group requested anonymity out of concern that they or
their families might be targeted for retribution by the government,
which maintains an extensive network of informants among student groups
overseas. Most members know each other only by Internet nicknames.

They also are concerned that, with more than half their members outside
China, their movement might be seen as a foreign-backed, anti-China plot
rather than a response to real domestic problems.

“The revolution was started purely because of the failure of domestic
affairs, not because of overseas forces,” said “Hua Ge,” a Columbia
University graduate in classics who lives in New York and at 27 years
old is one of the group’s older members. He recruited the others.

The first online calls for a Chinese “Jasmine Revolution” =E2=80=94= a
Twitter post on Feb. 17 and a longer appeal on the U.S.-based Chinese
news site Boxun.com on Feb. 19 =E2=80=94 remain anonymous. = Soon after
they appeared, Hua Ge said that he, together with a man in China that he
refused to identify, started the website Molihuaxingdong.blogspot.com.

“Molihuaxingdong” is Chinese for “Jasmine Movement” and it has evolved
to include a Facebook page, a Twitter feed, and Google groups for every
Chinese province or territory. Many of the sites are blocked in China,
but remain effective because so many Chinese know how to elude
government blocks, said Hua Ge.

“People need to have some change in their thinking,” said Hua Ge, a
native of the central Chinese city of Wuhan. “They don’t really
understand what rights they have, or what kind of political future they
can choose.”

Their main Google group has more than online 1,200 users, though how
many are inside China is unclear. An online survey posted in February
received 300 responses, mostly from people in China, members said, and
the group gets 50 to 100 emails daily from participants in the country.

Outside China, members are in France, Australia, Canada, Korea and
Japan, among other countries. “Forest Intelligence” oversees the
recruitment of volunteers and maintains the website. “Xiaomo,” a
24-year-old college student in Paris, collates comments from surveys.
Boston-based student “Pamela Wang,” 18, translates news articles into
Chinese and is one of eight administrators of the group’s Facebook page.

The eight members in China include an expert in online search engines, a
former government employee who writes articles and someone who works on
the website’s layout, said Hua Ge. He refused to provide their contact
information or reveal details about them out of concerns for their
safety.

Hua Ge said the group also has consulted Wang Juntao, a prominent
dissident sentenced to 13 years in prison for advising students during
the 1989 pro-democracy protests centered on Tiananmen Square. Freed on
medical parole in 1993, Wang now lives in New York and confirmed his
assistance.

Collectively, the group’s postings are often clever with a touch of
sarcasm. People are urged to “stroll” and “smile” rather than protest.
“We are making a new history of revolution by a unique way: We use the
sound of laughter, singing and salutations instead of the sound of guns,
cannons and warplanes!” a notice dated March 1 said.

Online security is a major concern, and group members are constantly in
touch. On Sunday, Forest Intelligence showed an AP reporter his laptop,
on which was installed a virtual machine =E2= =80=94 an operating system
within the computer’s normal operating system that provides an extra
layer of protection against hackers.

As soon as he logged on, Skype and Gmails chat services blinked with new
messages. “Are you back yet?” wrote Xiaomo, who then relayed news that
activist-artist Ai Weiwei was prevented from getting on a flight to Hong
Kong. Less than an hour later, the news was posted on the group’s
website.

On Tuesday, the group released an Internet safety manual to help Chinese
users circumvent censors and issued another statement deploring the
current crackdown. It warned that if activists were not released by
April 10, they would retaliate by using “search engine optimization”
techniques so that when Chinese do online searches for names of
officials the results will link to reports about corruption.

The group has no illusions that change, if any, will come soon, but is
willing to wait years to gather momentum.

“Some people say this movement is going to die and this movement is not
going to be successful like that in Tunisia or Egypt, but in those
countries, it took three or four years for the people to make
preparations and finally, there was a peaceful transition,” Hua Ge said.
“It may take a period of time for the people to wake up, so the longer
we continue our efforts the more people will know about the situation
and join us.”
Follow Yahoo! News on Twitter, become a fan on Facebook

–=20
Michael Wilson
Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
Email: michael.wilson@st=
ratfor.com

—
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
http://www.stratfor.com

—

Sean Noonan

Tactical Analyst

Office: +1 512-279-9479

Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

http://www.stratfor.com

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-24-00-chinas-jasmine-googlegroup-organizer-in.html

The WikiLeaks Forum
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17682.0.html

[EastAsia] INSIGHT – US POV of Uyghers

The following EMail is from 2009-09-14 and will give a view on China US and Uyghers. Also it shows you a short view on Stratfor thoughts about tibe a quote is following:

“This is really different than the Tibet issue in that Tibet is a
bullshit mountainous region, but has been a thorn in the
government’s side because of its large lobbying group abroad, not
because China wanted to integrate the region into China”

The complete EMail:

Re: [EastAsia] INSIGHT – US POV of Uyghers

Date	2009-09-14 14:58:54
From	goodrich@stratfor.com
To	rbaker@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com reva.bhalla@stratfor.com eurasia@stratfor.com eastasia@stratfor.com
Others	InReplyTo: 1784067966-1252932718-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-1601042776-@bda007.bisx.prod.on.blackberry
Text
the way it was put to me (and tell me if I’m wrong Baker), but along with those reasons below Beijing also wants to fold the xinjiang province more economically into the greater Chinese econ, which is hard to do with such hostility there. It would shift xinjiang from being a buffer region to being another stepping stone on their way to conquer CA. Rodger Baker wrote: Etim attacks two years ago, riots this year, greater worry about national stability, want to avoid having xinjiang seen as tibet overseas — Wireless ————————————————————————– From: Peter Zeihan Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2009 07:43:37 -0500 To: Jennifer Richmond Subject: Re: [EastAsia] INSIGHT – US POV of Uyghers why are the chinese thinking that this is something that now needs to be treated differently? what’s changed from their pov? Lauren Goodrich wrote: LG: this one is kinda long, so I tried to divide it up. Really interesting stuff on US view & Russian meddling Can follow-up if you have questions Rodger or Jen. CODE: KZ105 PUBLICATION: if needed SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former State and USAID specialist on Uyghers SOURCE LEVEL: medium ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: Analysts & EA & Eurasia HANDLER: Lauren China: basic shifts and feelings on Uyghers China has shifted dramatically in how it looks at Xinxang. Before it was just a bufferzone to be contained and suppressed. But now Beijing wants to fully incorporate the region into China economically, so it is more than just contained and suppressed now…. Now they need real order and loyalty. Before they allowed an independent streak in that as long as the Uighers didn’t act out everything was okay, but now Beijing can’t risk even that. This is really different than the Tibet issue in that Tibet is a bullshit mountainous region, but has been a thorn in the government’s side because of its large lobbying group abroad, not because China wanted to integrate the region into China further-Xingxiang is different because now Beijing wants to integrate the region and it doesn’t have a large lobbying group. — Lauren Goodrich Director of Analysis Senior Eurasia Analyst STRATFOR T: 512.744.4311 F: 512.744.4334 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com http://www.stratfor.com