THE ASSASSINATION OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH: A CLOSER LOOK

This Text is from a Stratfor INSIGHT PDF or DocX Document it is about the Assasination of OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH.

The assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh (Arabic: محمود المبحوح‎, Maḥmūd al-Mabḥūḥ) (14 February 1961 – 19 January 2010) took place on 19 January 2010, in a Dubai hotel room. Al-Mabhouh—a co-founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the IslamistPalestinian group Hamas—was wanted by the Israeli government for the kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers in 1989 as well as purchasing arms from Iran for use in Gaza; these have been cited as a possible motive for the assassination.[1] He also had many other enemies including Fatah (whose members “loathed” him), Egypt had imprisoned him for all of 2003, and Jordan’s intelligence services were looking for him.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Mahmoud_Al-Mabhouh

This was an Mossad Israelian Operation behind own lines on the field of Dubai. This Insight will give a view more details on that actions also you will find WikiLeaks Related Cables of this Story right here:

http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=10ABUDHABI103&q=al-mabhouh%20mahmoud

http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=10DUBAI29&q=al-mabhouh%20mahmoud

The Following text is a copie from a Stratfor Intelligence Document and will give you another insight view of the Assasination.

THE ASSASSINATION OF MAHMOUD AL-MABHOUH: A CLOSER LOOK

Editor’s Note:
This intelligence brief is based on information and insight that STRATFOR analysts believe would be of interest to our clients and aid them in their security planning.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was found dead Jan. 20 in his room at Al-Bustan hotel in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Al-Mabhouh was a senior Hamas military commander and one of the founders of the Izz al-Deen al-Qassam Brigades. He was traveling to Dubai for an unknown meeting, presumably on sensitive Hamas business. According to STRATFOR sources, he had stopped in Dubai on his way to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials about prospective arms sales to Hamas. Al-Mabhouh was traveling without security. According to one report, this was due to the inability to purchase airfare for his bodyguards, though we suspect there might have been an operational reason for him to travel alone.

Dubai law enforcement authorities have ruled out natural causes in al-Mabhouh’s death and have identified as many as 17 individuals (15 men and two women) believed to have participated in the assassination on Jan. 19. Dubai law enforcement officials were able to track 11 of the 17 individuals through closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage back to their arrival at the Dubai International Airport 19 hours before the hit. The 11 individuals traveled to Dubai on passports from Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. They arrived at different times from different locations around Europe approximately 14 hours before al-Mabhouh arrived. The team also used several different high-pedestrian-traffic locations throughout Dubai — including at least three hotels and a shopping center — as meeting locations, logistics hubs and staging sites prior to the assassination.

Additionally, Dubai law enforcement officials were able to identify several reportedly encrypted international phone calls made from the phones of the suspected members of the assassination team to numbers in Austria, where Dubai authorities suspect a command and control center for the operation was based. The members of the teams had attempted to alter their physical appearance to varying degrees, from simply wearing a hat to donning wigs and glasses. Furthermore, the demeanor of the team members viewed in the CCTV footage did not deviate from that of any ordinary tourist or businessman who frequents Dubai, which indicates a high level of experience and professionalism.

Throughout the CCTV footage, it is very clear that the 17 members of the teams carried out specific roles in the operation. At least four surveillance teams were identified; three of the four teams appeared to work in pairs, while it seemed the fourth “team” consisted of a single individual. Another individual, who appeared to be the senior commander of the operation, apparently reserved the room across the hall from where al-Mabhouh was staying. The remaining seven members of the group appeared to serve as lookouts outside al-Mabhouh’s room and as the actual assassins.

The Operation Under Way

Prior to al-Mabhouh’s arrival in Dubai, the surveillance teams were positioned at the airport and at two hotels that al-Mabhouh was known to frequent when he traveled to Dubai. Once he arrived at Al-Bustan, two surveillance operatives located in the lobby were seen following him to his room. Once his room number had been confirmed, the two surveillants contacted the rest of the team, who then moved to Al-Bustan, where the hotel room across the hall from al-Mabhouh’s was reserved by the senior commander. Al-Mabhouh then left Al-Bustan for a meeting with an unknown individual. CCTV footage shows one of the surveillance operatives watching al-Mabhouh get into a vehicle and then apparently describing the vehicle to others via cell phone.

After al-Mabhouh’s departure, two men and a woman, wearing wigs and glasses, and two two-man assassin teams staged themselves in the room across the hall from al-Mabhouh’s room. Upon his return to Al-Bustan, al-Mabhouh is seen passing a disguised man and woman, who take up lookout positions near the elevator and outside al-Mabhouh’s room. Al-Mabhouh is intercepted and killed in his room by the two assassin teams. The surveillance teams then leave the premises, followed by the assassin teams and finally by the disguised team members. The 11 identified individuals flew out of Dubai International Airport between two and 10 hours after the assassination to different locations — such as South Africa, Hong Kong, Germany, France and Switzerland — long before a hotel cleaning crew discovered al-Mabhouh’s body at approximately 1:30 p.m. local time on Jan. 20.

The arrival of the team members 19 hours ahead of the operation and 14 hours ahead of al-Mabhouh indicates that the group or organization had prior knowledge of al-Mabhouh’s travel plans. Additionally, the coordinated movements and logistics involved in the operation typically require an advance team in place ahead of the assassination team’s arrival. Throughout the CCTV footage, some members of the team, specifically the actual assassins, seemed mindful of the surveillance cameras and moved in such a way as to block a direct view of their faces, while others were not as careful.

The team’s movements throughout the operation were methodical, calculated and well-choreographed. Their outward demeanor immediately before and after the killing was smooth and did not deviate from that of regular Dubai visitors. The tactics, tradecraft and logistics involved in this operation were well beyond the capabilities of known terror organizations and all but a few national intelligence services. While the CCTV footage does not offer any clues as to who carried out the assassination, is does display a high and rare degree of professionalism.

Protection Concerns

While al-Mabhouh was clearly engaged in questionable activities that made him a target for assassination, there are valuable lessons that can be learned from studying the tactics and tradecraft used in this operation as outlined in the videos found at these links:
(Part 1)

(Part 2)

(Part 3)

Many executive protection (EP) teams spend a great deal of time with their principals in foreign four- and five-star hotels similar to Al-Bustan. While these hotels offer a significantly higher level of security than some other venues, the assassination of al¬Mabouh is a clear example that there can be security risks inside the confines of even a high-end hotel.

Hotels are considered by many security teams to be relatively safe environments, and in a typical EP hotel scenario, designated members of the team, usually one close-protection agent (though occasionally two agents are used), escort the principal to and from his or her room. In some cases, the principal may even move around the hotel to use the gym, eat or attend meetings without his protection team.

The number of attackers involved in the assassination of al-Mabhouh could easily have overpowered one or two close-protection agents, especially if the assassins were able to achieve the element of surprise and were skilled fighters or used weapons. Furthermore, in such a scenario, the close-protection agent(s) would likely be targeted first, to remove the danger they pose before focusing on the principal.

The skill and degree of surveillance exhibited in the al-Mabhouh assassination would have been difficult for an EP team or targeted principal to detect and defend against. It is very difficult for EP agents to focus much attention on surveillance detection, especially in the case of a one- or two-man team. This underscores the need for a comprehensive and professionally trained countersurveillance (CS) team in such situations. The CS team focuses on the events and actors surrounding the principal and the EP detail, and by its very nature is in a far better position to detect hostile surveillance than close-protection agents are.

The surveillance of al-Mabhouh observed on the CCTV footage would likely have been picked up by a deployed CS team. The CS team could then have alerted the EP team to possible threats and allowed the EP team to increase the level of protection and/or notify the appropriate authorities. The very presence of a CS team could also serve to raise the risk of conducting such an operation to the point where another target would be selected.

The al-Mabhouh case also demonstrates the importance of EP teams keeping tabs on the individuals who occupy the hotel rooms in close proximity to their principals. Such rooms can be used as ambush sites when the principal walks through the hall, and in some cases, they can be used to gain entry to the principal’s room through adjoining doorways or from the exterior of the building.

Click to access 24875_DUBAI_brief_100219.pdf

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php?topic=17438.0

####

DUBAI brief final doc & pdf
Date    2010-02-19 19:29:54
From    mccullar@stratfor.com
To    alfano@stratfor.com
scott.stewart@stratfor.com
alex.posey@stratfor.com
Others    InReplyTo: 6670C261-657D-4B3E-AE15-88655672F734@stratfor.com
Attachments

24874_DUBAI_brief 100219_final.doc (476KiB)
24875_DUBAI_brief_100219.pdf (112.2KiB)

Text
Here ya go.

Michael McCullar
Senior Editor, Special Projects
STRATFOR
E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
Tel: 512.744.4307
Cell: 512.970.5425
Fax: 512.744.4334

http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2013-02-10-00-dubai-brief-final-doc-and-pdf.html

 

Iranian connections into the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Syria

We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the email´s source) ;

“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”

The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.

the email ends with the quote:

“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com

Text

Spot on

On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>

###

Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches

———————————————————————-

From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening

I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

———————————————————————-

From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize

On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa

On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1139945_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1148366_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1155793_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html

WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17716.0.html

Muslim Brotherhood with deep connections into Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Syria and Gaza

The following EMail shows you the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the middle east, north africa connections and the arbaic world. the muslim brotherhood seems to play a big role in all this arab protests uprising all around the arab world. the EMails verified stratfor contact again comes from the FBI another part of this EMail is a “Syrian businessman with family links to the regime” – it gives you a short view of situation doen there and a view over the conflicts spreading around the countrys also the involvement of the muslim brotherhood.

Re: DISCUSSION – MB troubles

Date 2011-02-28 19:46:32
From burton@stratfor.com
To analysts@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:analysts@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1703833745.930286.1298918683296.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com

Text

A few weeks back, I posted some info from the FBI on the status of the
MB in CONUS, if it helps.

Reva Bhalla wrote:
> To follow up Kamran’s big piece on the MB, would be a good idea to do
> a shorter follow-up assessment on the status of MB in Egypt
> (post-mubarak), Syria and Jordan
>
> Egyptian MB seems to be in trouble, no longer as capable of keeping a
> liberal face to the protest movement. this identity crisis is causing
> fractures within the movement as we saw today between the MB youth and
> the older leadership
>
> Syrian MB is trying to work up the guts, but they still fear a Hama repeat
>
> Jordanian MB is being accommodated by the king, but they are also
> being shown their limits
>
> Kamran, any thoughts on how coordination between the MB branches has
> evolved since the Eygpt unrest broke out? what are these guys saying
> on their email lists?
>
> ————————————————————————
> *From: *”Reva Bhalla”
> *To: *”Analyst List”
> *Sent: *Monday, February 28, 2011 12:40:02 PM
> *Subject: *INSIGHT – Syria/Libya/MB – MB protest plans and bashar’s
> diss to Q
>
>
> PUBLICATION: for analysis
> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Syrian businessman with family links to the regime
> SOURCE Reliability : C
> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
> DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>
> ** love the syrian excuse given to Q
>
> the Syrian MB is closely coordinating with the MB in Egypt, Jordan,
> Libya and Gaza and observing the course of developments in Libya. They
> expect the imminent demise in Qhaddafi and want to develop a mechanism
> for toppling Asad on the basis of what they learn from the experiences
> of protesters in other Arab countries. It would be foolish to try to
> oust Asad because the regime will react with unprecedented use of
> force. The MB have already decided on starting their protest in
> Aleppo in northern Syria. The MB are encouraged by the fact that
> Aleppo, which is Syria’s second largest city (although there are
> people in Syria who argue that the Aleppo Metropolis is the country’s
> largest), is only 20 kms away from the Turkish borders. They do not
> think the Turkish government will allow the regime in Damascus to use
> excessive violence against Aleppo which they make historical claims
> to. Syrian officials are contacting their Turkish counterparts to
> ensure Ankara does not intervene in the north. It is most unlikely
> that protests can initiate in Damascus, Homs or Hama because the
> regime can abort them immediately. Aleppo is another matter because
> this large city has never accepted inclusion in the state of Syria and
> had always wanted to be included in Iraq.
>
> The source added that Libyan president Mu’ammar Qhaddafi has called
> president Bashar Asad three times to request military assistance. He
> says Qhaddafi promised Asad billions of dollars if he could send
> troops by sea to Libya to defeat the insurgents. Asad told him he is
> unable to do so because the Syrian army is tied to the Golan front in
> anticipation of an Israeli attack

Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1125344_re-discussion-mb-troubles-.html

http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17690.0.html