We could start this post as usual, anyways with some overview or something like this but this seems to be a bigger picture of iran than the most wanted to see. if the informations out of this email are correct than iran has deep ties into the muslim brotherhood movement or et me say it so: “Iran wants regional war.” – the email is from stratfor contact before Friedman says about the source in this mail (this will give you a view on the credibility of the email´s source) ;
“This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.”
The following email gives you a overview over the happenings in early 2011. The influence of iran in the syrian regime and the plan maybe behind. it is not clear at this point how deep the muslim brotherhood (arab Spring) momvement is controlled / observed by iranian agencys.
the email ends with the quote:
“I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.”
Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
Date 2011-03-24 14:45:26
From burton@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 4D8B481D.8050706@stratfor.com
Text
Spot on
On 3/24/2011 8:33 AM, George Friedman wrote:
> This is an outstanding source with a great record at critical points.
> Let’s not argue with his insights. They frequently do not fit in with
> what we expect him to say. They aren’t always right but they are
> never stupid. So we asked him a question and he provided this
> answer. Let’s spend time trying to see how it effects our point of
> view. What makes it particularly valuable is that it is startling.
>
> This is the guy who told us there would be a war with Hezbollah in
> 2006. We ignored him because it didn’t fit our views. Don’t want to
> do it again. So let’s begin by assuming he’s right and work from there.
>
> On 03/24/11 07:45 , Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> like i said below, will be getting more details on the MB linkages
>> this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB works out
>> or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen
>> in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it uses to
>> pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would iran even
>> really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> I don’t understand the linkage entirely either. that’s why im waiting
>> for more info to evaluate this properly
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Bayless Parsley”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:44:45 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> what about the logic gap on the Iran-Syrian MB statement? i don’t
>> really follow how he is linking those two points.
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>
>> no idea about credibility of that HZ claim. seems doubtful to me
>>
>> ————————————————————————
>> *From: *”Michael Wilson”
>> *To: *”Alpha List”
>> *Sent: *Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:37:47 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
>>
>> also the Syria opposition is /claiming/ that Syria is using
>> Hezbollah to put the protestors down. I have no idea on the
>> credibility of this (would they really not be able to do this
>> themselves?) but that would seem to go against Iran wanting to
>> destabilize
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>
>> I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic
>> Awakening” and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
>>
>> On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
>>
>>
>> PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
>> ATTRIBUTION: n/a
>> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
>> SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
>> ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
>> DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
>> SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
>>
>> ** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more
>> details on the MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure
>> how Iranian assistance to MB works out or what the motive
>> would even be for a country like Syria. We’ve seen in the
>> past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that it
>> uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how
>> far would iran even really want to take that? no idea
>> yet, just throwing this out there.
>>
>> Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the
>> developments in the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I
>> think the Iranians want to empower the MB in Egypt and
>> create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance. This also
>> explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
>> demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into
>> the picture Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying
>> to Aleppo via Turkish air space. Weapons were found on
>> the Syria bound plane when it was forced to land in
>> Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign against Gaza.
>>
>>
>>
>> —
>> Michael Wilson
>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>
>>
>
> —
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>
>
###
Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
Date 2011-03-24 14:33:54
From bokhari@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
Others Listname: mailto:alpha@stratfor.com
MessageId:
InReplyTo: 1187207356.1470408.1300973557223.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com
Text
Will do. Meeting top MB leader Essam el Erian tomorrow morning.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
———————————————————————-
From: Reva Bhalla
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 08:32:37 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
pls get as much detail as you can about what type and level of
coordination there is among Jordanian, Egyptian and Syrian MB branches
———————————————————————-
From: “Kamran Bokhari”
To: “Alpha List”
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2011 7:58:20 AM
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
I am sitting with a former MB guy and he tells me that at best the
Egyptian MB respects Iran for its stand and there is a diversity within
the MB as regards this attitude. But the sectarian, ideological, and
nationalistic divides are very strong. MB is very afraid of Iranian push
into the Arab world.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
———————————————————————-
From: Michael Wilson
Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2011 07:38:17 -0500 (CDT)
To: Alpha List
ReplyTo: Alpha List
Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT – Iran – the Islamic Awakening
also the Syria opposition is claiming that Syria is using Hezbollah to put
the protestors down. I have no idea on the credibility of this (would they
really not be able to do this themselves?) but that would seem to go
against Iran wanting to destabilize
On 3/24/11 7:29 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
I don’t follow his linkage of Iran calling this the “Islamic Awakening”
and the MB aiding demonstrators in Daraa
On 3/24/11 7:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
PUBLICATION: background – just opinion for now
ATTRIBUTION: n/a
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
** just opinion so far from ME1 — will be getting more details on the
MB linkages this morning. Not quite sure how Iranian assistance to MB
works out or what the motive would even be for a country like Syria.
We’ve seen in the past signs of Iranian links to the MB in syria that
it uses to pressure the al assads when it needs to, but how far would
iran even really want to take that? no idea yet, just throwing this
out there.
Iran wants regional war. The Iranians are calling the developments in
the Arab world “Islamic Awakening.” I think the Iranians want to
empower the MB in Egypt and create a Sunni-Shiite religious alliance.
This also explains why the MB are giving assistance to the
demonstrators in Dir’a in Syria. I would also bring into the picture
Turkish search of Iranian cargo planes flying to Aleppo via Turkish
air space. Weapons were found on the Syria bound plane when it was
forced to land in Diyarbakr. I expect a major Israeli campaign
Related Links:
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1139945_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1148366_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1155793_re-alpha-insight-iran-the-islamic-awakening-.html
WikiLeaks Forum:
http://www.wikileaks-forum.com/index.php/topic,17716.0.html
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